Recent ensemble runs from the ECMWF and GFS models indicate Moscow’s August 16 maximum will likely fall in the 24–26 °C range, with partial cloud cover, moderate westerly flow, and limited warm-air advection keeping peaks modest. These conditions produce the tight market clustering between 24 °C, 25 °C, and 26 °C, as small differences in predicted cloud timing, shower development, or boundary-layer mixing can shift the daily high by 1–2 °C. Historical August averages near 22 °C provide context, while Russian Hydrometeorological Centre updates and the next model cycles ahead of the observation window remain the key near-term drivers that could tilt trader consensus within this narrow band.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Moscow on August 16?
Highest temperature in Moscow on August 16?
24°C 27%
25°C 27%
26°C 25%
23°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
20°C or below
4%
21°C
4%
22°C
11%
23°C
11%
24°C
27%
25°C
27%
26°C
25%
27°C
5%
28°C
3%
29°C
6%
30°C or higher
4%
24°C 27%
25°C 27%
26°C 25%
23°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
20°C or below
$10 Vol.
4%
21°C
$3 Vol.
4%
22°C
$0 Vol.
11%
23°C
$0 Vol.
11%
24°C
$0 Vol.
27%
25°C
$0 Vol.
27%
26°C
$0 Vol.
25%
27°C
$0 Vol.
5%
28°C
$21 Vol.
3%
29°C
$25 Vol.
6%
30°C or higher
$20 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble runs from the ECMWF and GFS models indicate Moscow’s August 16 maximum will likely fall in the 24–26 °C range, with partial cloud cover, moderate westerly flow, and limited warm-air advection keeping peaks modest. These conditions produce the tight market clustering between 24 °C, 25 °C, and 26 °C, as small differences in predicted cloud timing, shower development, or boundary-layer mixing can shift the daily high by 1–2 °C. Historical August averages near 22 °C provide context, while Russian Hydrometeorological Centre updates and the next model cycles ahead of the observation window remain the key near-term drivers that could tilt trader consensus within this narrow band.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$79End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble runs from the ECMWF and GFS models indicate Moscow’s August 16 maximum will likely fall in the 24–26 °C range, with partial cloud cover, moderate westerly flow, and limited warm-air advection keeping peaks modest. These conditions produce the tight market clustering between 24 °C, 25 °C, and 26 °C, as small differences in predicted cloud timing, shower development, or boundary-layer mixing can shift the daily high by 1–2 °C. Historical August averages near 22 °C provide context, while Russian Hydrometeorological Centre updates and the next model cycles ahead of the observation window remain the key near-term drivers that could tilt trader consensus within this narrow band.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$79End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble runs from the ECMWF and GFS models indicate Moscow’s August 16 maximum will likely fall in the 24–26 °C range, with partial cloud cover, moderate westerly flow, and limited warm-air advection keeping peaks modest. These conditions produce the tight market clustering between 24 °C, 25 °C, and 26 °C, as small differences in predicted cloud timing, shower development, or boundary-layer mixing can shift the daily high by 1–2 °C. Historical August averages near 22 °C provide context, while Russian Hydrometeorological Centre updates and the next model cycles ahead of the observation window remain the key near-term drivers that could tilt trader consensus within this narrow band.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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