Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS indicate a warm southerly flow and potential heatwave onset over central Europe around August 16, 2026, driving Warsaw's expected daily maximum into the 29–34 °C range. Model spread arises from differences in the timing of warm-air advection, cloud cover from an approaching front, and boundary-layer mixing, with some runs favoring peaks near 30 °C while others allow brief excursions above 33 °C under clearer skies. Historical August climatology (average high ~24 °C) underscores the anomaly, yet resolution hinges on updated model runs and official observations from the Polish Institute of Meteorology. Trader consensus clusters around 29–30 °C, reflecting this forecast uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on August 16?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on August 16?
29°C 33%
28°C 30%
30°C 22%
31°C 18%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
1%
26°C
2%
27°C
11%
28°C
23%
29°C
33%
30°C
22%
31°C
18%
32°C
4%
33°C or higher
3%
29°C 33%
28°C 30%
30°C 22%
31°C 18%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
23°C or below
$5 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$5 Vol.
1%
25°C
$5 Vol.
1%
26°C
$81 Vol.
2%
27°C
$0 Vol.
11%
28°C
$3 Vol.
23%
29°C
$73 Vol.
33%
30°C
$32 Vol.
22%
31°C
$12 Vol.
18%
32°C
$0 Vol.
4%
33°C or higher
$10 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS indicate a warm southerly flow and potential heatwave onset over central Europe around August 16, 2026, driving Warsaw's expected daily maximum into the 29–34 °C range. Model spread arises from differences in the timing of warm-air advection, cloud cover from an approaching front, and boundary-layer mixing, with some runs favoring peaks near 30 °C while others allow brief excursions above 33 °C under clearer skies. Historical August climatology (average high ~24 °C) underscores the anomaly, yet resolution hinges on updated model runs and official observations from the Polish Institute of Meteorology. Trader consensus clusters around 29–30 °C, reflecting this forecast uncertainty.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$227End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS indicate a warm southerly flow and potential heatwave onset over central Europe around August 16, 2026, driving Warsaw's expected daily maximum into the 29–34 °C range. Model spread arises from differences in the timing of warm-air advection, cloud cover from an approaching front, and boundary-layer mixing, with some runs favoring peaks near 30 °C while others allow brief excursions above 33 °C under clearer skies. Historical August climatology (average high ~24 °C) underscores the anomaly, yet resolution hinges on updated model runs and official observations from the Polish Institute of Meteorology. Trader consensus clusters around 29–30 °C, reflecting this forecast uncertainty.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$227End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS indicate a warm southerly flow and potential heatwave onset over central Europe around August 16, 2026, driving Warsaw's expected daily maximum into the 29–34 °C range. Model spread arises from differences in the timing of warm-air advection, cloud cover from an approaching front, and boundary-layer mixing, with some runs favoring peaks near 30 °C while others allow brief excursions above 33 °C under clearer skies. Historical August climatology (average high ~24 °C) underscores the anomaly, yet resolution hinges on updated model runs and official observations from the Polish Institute of Meteorology. Trader consensus clusters around 29–30 °C, reflecting this forecast uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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