Recent forecast updates from sources including Météo-France and ECMWF highlight a post-heatwave cooling trend across northern France, with increased cloud cover and possible showers moderating overnight temperatures in Paris. Model consensus currently projects minimums near 18–19°C for August 16, driven by reduced daytime heating the prior afternoon and limited radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies. This aligns with historical August climatology where lows average 15–18°C but have trended warmer in recent decades. Market-implied odds reflect trader focus on these near-term guidance shifts, with resolution hinging on official Météo-France observations at Paris-Montsouris. New model runs ahead of the date could refine probabilities if Atlantic fronts strengthen or clear skies develop.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Paris on August 16?
Lowest temperature in Paris on August 16?
18°C or below 49%
19°C 28%
20°C 26%
21°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
18°C or below
49%
19°C
28%
20°C
26%
21°C
11%
22°C
6%
23°C
6%
24°C
4%
25°C
4%
26°C
4%
27°C
1%
28°C or higher
1%
18°C or below 49%
19°C 28%
20°C 26%
21°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
18°C or below
$0 Vol.
49%
19°C
$0 Vol.
28%
20°C
$0 Vol.
26%
21°C
$0 Vol.
11%
22°C
$5 Vol.
6%
23°C
$15 Vol.
6%
24°C
$15 Vol.
4%
25°C
$10 Vol.
4%
26°C
$10 Vol.
4%
27°C
$10 Vol.
1%
28°C or higher
$10 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast updates from sources including Météo-France and ECMWF highlight a post-heatwave cooling trend across northern France, with increased cloud cover and possible showers moderating overnight temperatures in Paris. Model consensus currently projects minimums near 18–19°C for August 16, driven by reduced daytime heating the prior afternoon and limited radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies. This aligns with historical August climatology where lows average 15–18°C but have trended warmer in recent decades. Market-implied odds reflect trader focus on these near-term guidance shifts, with resolution hinging on official Météo-France observations at Paris-Montsouris. New model runs ahead of the date could refine probabilities if Atlantic fronts strengthen or clear skies develop.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 1:28 AM ET
Volume
$75End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 1:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast updates from sources including Météo-France and ECMWF highlight a post-heatwave cooling trend across northern France, with increased cloud cover and possible showers moderating overnight temperatures in Paris. Model consensus currently projects minimums near 18–19°C for August 16, driven by reduced daytime heating the prior afternoon and limited radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies. This aligns with historical August climatology where lows average 15–18°C but have trended warmer in recent decades. Market-implied odds reflect trader focus on these near-term guidance shifts, with resolution hinging on official Météo-France observations at Paris-Montsouris. New model runs ahead of the date could refine probabilities if Atlantic fronts strengthen or clear skies develop.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$75End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 1:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast updates from sources including Météo-France and ECMWF highlight a post-heatwave cooling trend across northern France, with increased cloud cover and possible showers moderating overnight temperatures in Paris. Model consensus currently projects minimums near 18–19°C for August 16, driven by reduced daytime heating the prior afternoon and limited radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies. This aligns with historical August climatology where lows average 15–18°C but have trended warmer in recent decades. Market-implied odds reflect trader focus on these near-term guidance shifts, with resolution hinging on official Météo-France observations at Paris-Montsouris. New model runs ahead of the date could refine probabilities if Atlantic fronts strengthen or clear skies develop.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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