Latest ensemble forecasts from the Finnish Meteorological Institute and ECMWF show maximum temperatures in Helsinki on August 16 clustering around 19–22°C amid typical late-summer cooling and moderate southerly flow without strong warm-air advection. This drives the market’s peak implied probability at 21°C, with 22°C close behind, while lower outcomes reflect possible increased cloud cover or a passing front and higher ones remain low-probability outliers requiring anomalous ridging. Official guidance notes normal historical variability for mid-August, when daily highs average near 19°C and exceed 25°C only rarely, underscoring the genuine uncertainty in short-range model runs that traders are pricing through real-capital consensus. Updated FMI briefings and next model cycles will provide the clearest near-term signals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Helsinki on August 16?
Highest temperature in Helsinki on August 16?
21°C 35%
22°C 25%
23°C 20%
20°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
16°C or below
1%
17°C
1%
18°C
3%
19°C
3%
20°C
7%
21°C
35%
22°C
25%
23°C
12%
24°C
5%
25°C
6%
26°C or higher
1%
21°C 35%
22°C 25%
23°C 20%
20°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
16°C or below
$5 Vol.
1%
17°C
$5 Vol.
1%
18°C
$10 Vol.
3%
19°C
$32 Vol.
3%
20°C
$0 Vol.
7%
21°C
$2 Vol.
35%
22°C
$0 Vol.
25%
23°C
$5 Vol.
12%
24°C
$5 Vol.
5%
25°C
$10 Vol.
6%
26°C or higher
$5 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from the Finnish Meteorological Institute and ECMWF show maximum temperatures in Helsinki on August 16 clustering around 19–22°C amid typical late-summer cooling and moderate southerly flow without strong warm-air advection. This drives the market’s peak implied probability at 21°C, with 22°C close behind, while lower outcomes reflect possible increased cloud cover or a passing front and higher ones remain low-probability outliers requiring anomalous ridging. Official guidance notes normal historical variability for mid-August, when daily highs average near 19°C and exceed 25°C only rarely, underscoring the genuine uncertainty in short-range model runs that traders are pricing through real-capital consensus. Updated FMI briefings and next model cycles will provide the clearest near-term signals.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$78End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHKResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from the Finnish Meteorological Institute and ECMWF show maximum temperatures in Helsinki on August 16 clustering around 19–22°C amid typical late-summer cooling and moderate southerly flow without strong warm-air advection. This drives the market’s peak implied probability at 21°C, with 22°C close behind, while lower outcomes reflect possible increased cloud cover or a passing front and higher ones remain low-probability outliers requiring anomalous ridging. Official guidance notes normal historical variability for mid-August, when daily highs average near 19°C and exceed 25°C only rarely, underscoring the genuine uncertainty in short-range model runs that traders are pricing through real-capital consensus. Updated FMI briefings and next model cycles will provide the clearest near-term signals.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$78End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from the Finnish Meteorological Institute and ECMWF show maximum temperatures in Helsinki on August 16 clustering around 19–22°C amid typical late-summer cooling and moderate southerly flow without strong warm-air advection. This drives the market’s peak implied probability at 21°C, with 22°C close behind, while lower outcomes reflect possible increased cloud cover or a passing front and higher ones remain low-probability outliers requiring anomalous ridging. Official guidance notes normal historical variability for mid-August, when daily highs average near 19°C and exceed 25°C only rarely, underscoring the genuine uncertainty in short-range model runs that traders are pricing through real-capital consensus. Updated FMI briefings and next model cycles will provide the clearest near-term signals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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