Recent model consensus from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles points to widespread cloud cover and showers over Shanghai on August 14, limiting daytime solar heating and keeping maximum temperatures near 28–29 °C. Subtropical summer conditions, with high humidity and monsoon influences, favor scattered thunderstorms that further suppress peaks compared with clear-sky climatology of 32–35 °C. Latest runs show only modest warming potential if breaks in cloud occur, explaining why traders assign roughly 77 % combined probability to the two leading outcomes while assigning minimal weight to 30 °C or higher. Updated guidance overnight and early on the 14th will be the next key data points for market adjustment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on August 14?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 14?
29°C 47%
28°C 32%
27°C 10%
30°C 10%
NEW
$28,930 Vol.
NEW
$28,930 Vol.
Aug 14, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
10%
28°C
32%
29°C
47%
30°C
10%
31°C
2%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C or higher
<1%
29°C 47%
28°C 32%
27°C 10%
30°C 10%
NEW
$28,930 Vol.
NEW
$28,930 Vol.
Aug 14, 2026
24°C or below
$1,028 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$806 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$1,192 Vol.
1%
27°C
$4,570 Vol.
10%
28°C
$5,978 Vol.
32%
29°C
$4,099 Vol.
47%
30°C
$5,629 Vol.
10%
31°C
$1,728 Vol.
2%
32°C
$2,397 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$556 Vol.
<1%
34°C or higher
$947 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles points to widespread cloud cover and showers over Shanghai on August 14, limiting daytime solar heating and keeping maximum temperatures near 28–29 °C. Subtropical summer conditions, with high humidity and monsoon influences, favor scattered thunderstorms that further suppress peaks compared with clear-sky climatology of 32–35 °C. Latest runs show only modest warming potential if breaks in cloud occur, explaining why traders assign roughly 77 % combined probability to the two leading outcomes while assigning minimal weight to 30 °C or higher. Updated guidance overnight and early on the 14th will be the next key data points for market adjustment.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$28,930End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles points to widespread cloud cover and showers over Shanghai on August 14, limiting daytime solar heating and keeping maximum temperatures near 28–29 °C. Subtropical summer conditions, with high humidity and monsoon influences, favor scattered thunderstorms that further suppress peaks compared with clear-sky climatology of 32–35 °C. Latest runs show only modest warming potential if breaks in cloud occur, explaining why traders assign roughly 77 % combined probability to the two leading outcomes while assigning minimal weight to 30 °C or higher. Updated guidance overnight and early on the 14th will be the next key data points for market adjustment.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$28,930End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles points to widespread cloud cover and showers over Shanghai on August 14, limiting daytime solar heating and keeping maximum temperatures near 28–29 °C. Subtropical summer conditions, with high humidity and monsoon influences, favor scattered thunderstorms that further suppress peaks compared with clear-sky climatology of 32–35 °C. Latest runs show only modest warming potential if breaks in cloud occur, explaining why traders assign roughly 77 % combined probability to the two leading outcomes while assigning minimal weight to 30 °C or higher. Updated guidance overnight and early on the 14th will be the next key data points for market adjustment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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