Latest Météo-France forecasts and ensemble guidance point to a peak near 38°C in Paris on August 13 under a strong high-pressure ridge promoting clear skies, subsidence, and light winds across western Europe. This setup favors daytime heating above the long-term August mean of roughly 25°C, with urban heat-island effects in the city center likely adding 1–2°C. Recent model runs show tight consensus around 37–38°C, though minor spread in timing and cloud cover leaves room for 37°C or a brief push to 39°C. Traders assign the highest implied probability (45.5%) to 38°C, reflecting skin-in-the-game assessment of forecast uncertainty ahead of official station observations used for resolution. Updated model runs tonight and tomorrow morning represent the next key data points.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Paris on August 13?
Highest temperature in Paris on August 13?
38°C 48%
37°C 30%
39°C 13%
36°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 13, 2026
32°C or below
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
1%
35°C
3%
36°C
8%
37°C
30%
38°C
48%
39°C
13%
40°C
3%
41°C
2%
42°C or higher
<1%
38°C 48%
37°C 30%
39°C 13%
36°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 13, 2026
32°C or below
$95 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$31 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$367 Vol.
1%
35°C
$40 Vol.
3%
36°C
$170 Vol.
8%
37°C
$188 Vol.
30%
38°C
$681 Vol.
48%
39°C
$47 Vol.
13%
40°C
$12 Vol.
3%
41°C
$29 Vol.
2%
42°C or higher
$30 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest Météo-France forecasts and ensemble guidance point to a peak near 38°C in Paris on August 13 under a strong high-pressure ridge promoting clear skies, subsidence, and light winds across western Europe. This setup favors daytime heating above the long-term August mean of roughly 25°C, with urban heat-island effects in the city center likely adding 1–2°C. Recent model runs show tight consensus around 37–38°C, though minor spread in timing and cloud cover leaves room for 37°C or a brief push to 39°C. Traders assign the highest implied probability (45.5%) to 38°C, reflecting skin-in-the-game assessment of forecast uncertainty ahead of official station observations used for resolution. Updated model runs tonight and tomorrow morning represent the next key data points.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 1:02 AM ET
Volume
$1,691End Date
Aug 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 1:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest Météo-France forecasts and ensemble guidance point to a peak near 38°C in Paris on August 13 under a strong high-pressure ridge promoting clear skies, subsidence, and light winds across western Europe. This setup favors daytime heating above the long-term August mean of roughly 25°C, with urban heat-island effects in the city center likely adding 1–2°C. Recent model runs show tight consensus around 37–38°C, though minor spread in timing and cloud cover leaves room for 37°C or a brief push to 39°C. Traders assign the highest implied probability (45.5%) to 38°C, reflecting skin-in-the-game assessment of forecast uncertainty ahead of official station observations used for resolution. Updated model runs tonight and tomorrow morning represent the next key data points.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,691End Date
Aug 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 1:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest Météo-France forecasts and ensemble guidance point to a peak near 38°C in Paris on August 13 under a strong high-pressure ridge promoting clear skies, subsidence, and light winds across western Europe. This setup favors daytime heating above the long-term August mean of roughly 25°C, with urban heat-island effects in the city center likely adding 1–2°C. Recent model runs show tight consensus around 37–38°C, though minor spread in timing and cloud cover leaves room for 37°C or a brief push to 39°C. Traders assign the highest implied probability (45.5%) to 38°C, reflecting skin-in-the-game assessment of forecast uncertainty ahead of official station observations used for resolution. Updated model runs tonight and tomorrow morning represent the next key data points.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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