Current numerical weather prediction models, including consensus from global ensembles, point to a maximum temperature of 27–28°C in Istanbul on August 11, consistent with long-term August climatology of 27–29°C highs and absent any strong anomalous pressure or advection patterns. Recent observations through August 10 show stable conditions without pronounced heat advection from the south or blocking highs, keeping values near seasonal norms rather than the 30°C+ occasionally seen in stronger Mediterranean flows. Ensemble spread remains modest, supporting the market's heavy weighting toward 28°C (57.5% implied probability) and 27°C (31.5%), with lower odds on outliers reflecting limited upside potential from current steering patterns and boundary-layer moisture. Updated model runs over the next 12–24 hours will provide the final resolution inputs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on August 11?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on August 11?
28°C 58%
27°C 32%
29°C 9%
26°C 3%
NEW
NEW
Aug 11, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
3%
27°C
32%
28°C
58%
29°C
9%
30°C
2%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
28°C 58%
27°C 32%
29°C 9%
26°C 3%
NEW
NEW
Aug 11, 2026
23°C or below
$138 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$202 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$281 Vol.
1%
26°C
$173 Vol.
3%
27°C
$360 Vol.
32%
28°C
$1,233 Vol.
58%
29°C
$192 Vol.
9%
30°C
$159 Vol.
2%
31°C
$207 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$345 Vol.
<1%
33°C or higher
$131 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current numerical weather prediction models, including consensus from global ensembles, point to a maximum temperature of 27–28°C in Istanbul on August 11, consistent with long-term August climatology of 27–29°C highs and absent any strong anomalous pressure or advection patterns. Recent observations through August 10 show stable conditions without pronounced heat advection from the south or blocking highs, keeping values near seasonal norms rather than the 30°C+ occasionally seen in stronger Mediterranean flows. Ensemble spread remains modest, supporting the market's heavy weighting toward 28°C (57.5% implied probability) and 27°C (31.5%), with lower odds on outliers reflecting limited upside potential from current steering patterns and boundary-layer moisture. Updated model runs over the next 12–24 hours will provide the final resolution inputs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 9, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volume
$3,420End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current numerical weather prediction models, including consensus from global ensembles, point to a maximum temperature of 27–28°C in Istanbul on August 11, consistent with long-term August climatology of 27–29°C highs and absent any strong anomalous pressure or advection patterns. Recent observations through August 10 show stable conditions without pronounced heat advection from the south or blocking highs, keeping values near seasonal norms rather than the 30°C+ occasionally seen in stronger Mediterranean flows. Ensemble spread remains modest, supporting the market's heavy weighting toward 28°C (57.5% implied probability) and 27°C (31.5%), with lower odds on outliers reflecting limited upside potential from current steering patterns and boundary-layer moisture. Updated model runs over the next 12–24 hours will provide the final resolution inputs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,420End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current numerical weather prediction models, including consensus from global ensembles, point to a maximum temperature of 27–28°C in Istanbul on August 11, consistent with long-term August climatology of 27–29°C highs and absent any strong anomalous pressure or advection patterns. Recent observations through August 10 show stable conditions without pronounced heat advection from the south or blocking highs, keeping values near seasonal norms rather than the 30°C+ occasionally seen in stronger Mediterranean flows. Ensemble spread remains modest, supporting the market's heavy weighting toward 28°C (57.5% implied probability) and 27°C (31.5%), with lower odds on outliers reflecting limited upside potential from current steering patterns and boundary-layer moisture. Updated model runs over the next 12–24 hours will provide the final resolution inputs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions