Forecast models from sources including AccuWeather and climatological data indicate Moscow’s August 12 maximum will likely fall in the 17–20 °C range under partly cloudy skies, light northwest flow, and modest humidity, reflecting a post-heatwave cooling trend after earlier August peaks exceeded 25 °C. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread clustered near the long-term mid-August mean of roughly 19–22 °C, with afternoon peaks sensitive to cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and any brief radiative heating. The closely matched market-implied probabilities for 16–18 °C capture this genuine forecast uncertainty, where small shifts in steering patterns or model runs could tip the daily high by 1–2 °C. Traders are monitoring updated short-range guidance ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Moscow on August 12?
Highest temperature in Moscow on August 12?
17°C 33%
18°C 33%
16°C 29%
13°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 12, 2026
12°C or below
<1%
13°C
7%
14°C
7%
15°C
3%
16°C
29%
17°C
33%
18°C
33%
19°C
6%
20°C
4%
21°C
4%
22°C or higher
3%
17°C 33%
18°C 33%
16°C 29%
13°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 12, 2026
12°C or below
$5 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$12 Vol.
7%
14°C
$12 Vol.
7%
15°C
$12 Vol.
3%
16°C
$52 Vol.
29%
17°C
$32 Vol.
33%
18°C
$15 Vol.
33%
19°C
$5 Vol.
6%
20°C
$5 Vol.
4%
21°C
$16 Vol.
4%
22°C or higher
$17 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources including AccuWeather and climatological data indicate Moscow’s August 12 maximum will likely fall in the 17–20 °C range under partly cloudy skies, light northwest flow, and modest humidity, reflecting a post-heatwave cooling trend after earlier August peaks exceeded 25 °C. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread clustered near the long-term mid-August mean of roughly 19–22 °C, with afternoon peaks sensitive to cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and any brief radiative heating. The closely matched market-implied probabilities for 16–18 °C capture this genuine forecast uncertainty, where small shifts in steering patterns or model runs could tip the daily high by 1–2 °C. Traders are monitoring updated short-range guidance ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 10, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volume
$151End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources including AccuWeather and climatological data indicate Moscow’s August 12 maximum will likely fall in the 17–20 °C range under partly cloudy skies, light northwest flow, and modest humidity, reflecting a post-heatwave cooling trend after earlier August peaks exceeded 25 °C. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread clustered near the long-term mid-August mean of roughly 19–22 °C, with afternoon peaks sensitive to cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and any brief radiative heating. The closely matched market-implied probabilities for 16–18 °C capture this genuine forecast uncertainty, where small shifts in steering patterns or model runs could tip the daily high by 1–2 °C. Traders are monitoring updated short-range guidance ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$151End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from sources including AccuWeather and climatological data indicate Moscow’s August 12 maximum will likely fall in the 17–20 °C range under partly cloudy skies, light northwest flow, and modest humidity, reflecting a post-heatwave cooling trend after earlier August peaks exceeded 25 °C. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread clustered near the long-term mid-August mean of roughly 19–22 °C, with afternoon peaks sensitive to cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and any brief radiative heating. The closely matched market-implied probabilities for 16–18 °C capture this genuine forecast uncertainty, where small shifts in steering patterns or model runs could tip the daily high by 1–2 °C. Traders are monitoring updated short-range guidance ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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