Recent atmospheric conditions over the Yellow Sea, including persistent easterly flow and scattered thundery showers, are moderating daytime maxima in coastal Qingdao and creating tight clustering around 30–31 °C for August 12. Numerical weather prediction ensembles show modest spread in the timing and strength of any incoming trough or residual moisture, which differentiates the leading 31 °C outcome from nearby 30 °C and 32 °C probabilities. Sea-surface temperatures near 26–27 °C and typical marine boundary-layer effects further limit extreme excursions, consistent with historical August coastal climatology. Updated model runs and official China Meteorological Administration guidance expected within the next 24 hours will narrow the remaining uncertainty reflected in current market-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Qingdao on August 12?
Highest temperature in Qingdao on August 12?
31°C 34%
30°C 30%
29°C 16%
32°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 12, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
4%
28°C
12%
29°C
16%
30°C
30%
31°C
34%
32°C
14%
33°C
13%
34°C
9%
35°C or higher
1%
31°C 34%
30°C 30%
29°C 16%
32°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 12, 2026
25°C or below
$12 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$12 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$5 Vol.
4%
28°C
$1 Vol.
12%
29°C
$0 Vol.
16%
30°C
$0 Vol.
30%
31°C
$24 Vol.
34%
32°C
$0 Vol.
14%
33°C
$0 Vol.
13%
34°C
$10 Vol.
9%
35°C or higher
$12 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent atmospheric conditions over the Yellow Sea, including persistent easterly flow and scattered thundery showers, are moderating daytime maxima in coastal Qingdao and creating tight clustering around 30–31 °C for August 12. Numerical weather prediction ensembles show modest spread in the timing and strength of any incoming trough or residual moisture, which differentiates the leading 31 °C outcome from nearby 30 °C and 32 °C probabilities. Sea-surface temperatures near 26–27 °C and typical marine boundary-layer effects further limit extreme excursions, consistent with historical August coastal climatology. Updated model runs and official China Meteorological Administration guidance expected within the next 24 hours will narrow the remaining uncertainty reflected in current market-implied odds.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 10, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volume
$76End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent atmospheric conditions over the Yellow Sea, including persistent easterly flow and scattered thundery showers, are moderating daytime maxima in coastal Qingdao and creating tight clustering around 30–31 °C for August 12. Numerical weather prediction ensembles show modest spread in the timing and strength of any incoming trough or residual moisture, which differentiates the leading 31 °C outcome from nearby 30 °C and 32 °C probabilities. Sea-surface temperatures near 26–27 °C and typical marine boundary-layer effects further limit extreme excursions, consistent with historical August coastal climatology. Updated model runs and official China Meteorological Administration guidance expected within the next 24 hours will narrow the remaining uncertainty reflected in current market-implied odds.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$76End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent atmospheric conditions over the Yellow Sea, including persistent easterly flow and scattered thundery showers, are moderating daytime maxima in coastal Qingdao and creating tight clustering around 30–31 °C for August 12. Numerical weather prediction ensembles show modest spread in the timing and strength of any incoming trough or residual moisture, which differentiates the leading 31 °C outcome from nearby 30 °C and 32 °C probabilities. Sea-surface temperatures near 26–27 °C and typical marine boundary-layer effects further limit extreme excursions, consistent with historical August coastal climatology. Updated model runs and official China Meteorological Administration guidance expected within the next 24 hours will narrow the remaining uncertainty reflected in current market-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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