**No M6.5+ earthquakes have occurred globally from August 3–8, 2026.** Two M6.3 events struck on August 5—one south of the Kermadec Islands at 226 km depth and another offshore the Philippines—both below the market threshold. USGS data and VolcanoDiscovery reports confirm moderate worldwide activity, with multiple M5+ quakes but no events reaching 6.5 or higher during the window. Historically, M6.5+ quakes average roughly one to two per month globally and occur sporadically rather than in tight clusters, making zero or one the most probable outcomes for any single week. With only August 9 remaining and no active seismic swarms or foreshock sequences reported by monitoring agencies, trader sentiment strongly favors zero events at 77.5% implied probability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 3 - August 9?
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 3 - August 9?
0 78%
1 17%
2 6.0%
3 1.1%
$11,021 Vol.
$11,021 Vol.
Aug 10, 2026
0
78%
1
17%
2
6%
3
1%
4
<1%
5
<1%
>5
<1%
0 78%
1 17%
2 6.0%
3 1.1%
$11,021 Vol.
$11,021 Vol.
Aug 10, 2026
0
$6,046 Vol.
78%
1
$2,171 Vol.
17%
2
$335 Vol.
6%
3
$466 Vol.
1%
4
$345 Vol.
<1%
5
$854 Vol.
<1%
>5
$804 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.**No M6.5+ earthquakes have occurred globally from August 3–8, 2026.** Two M6.3 events struck on August 5—one south of the Kermadec Islands at 226 km depth and another offshore the Philippines—both below the market threshold. USGS data and VolcanoDiscovery reports confirm moderate worldwide activity, with multiple M5+ quakes but no events reaching 6.5 or higher during the window.
Historically, M6.5+ quakes average roughly one to two per month globally and occur sporadically rather than in tight clusters, making zero or one the most probable outcomes for any single week. With only August 9 remaining and no active seismic swarms or foreshock sequences reported by monitoring agencies, trader sentiment strongly favors zero events at 77.5% implied probability.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 12:45 PM ET
Volume
$11,021End Date
Aug 10, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 12:45 PM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.**No M6.5+ earthquakes have occurred globally from August 3–8, 2026.** Two M6.3 events struck on August 5—one south of the Kermadec Islands at 226 km depth and another offshore the Philippines—both below the market threshold. USGS data and VolcanoDiscovery reports confirm moderate worldwide activity, with multiple M5+ quakes but no events reaching 6.5 or higher during the window.
Historically, M6.5+ quakes average roughly one to two per month globally and occur sporadically rather than in tight clusters, making zero or one the most probable outcomes for any single week. With only August 9 remaining and no active seismic swarms or foreshock sequences reported by monitoring agencies, trader sentiment strongly favors zero events at 77.5% implied probability.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$11,021End Date
Aug 10, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 12:45 PM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...**No M6.5+ earthquakes have occurred globally from August 3–8, 2026.** Two M6.3 events struck on August 5—one south of the Kermadec Islands at 226 km depth and another offshore the Philippines—both below the market threshold. USGS data and VolcanoDiscovery reports confirm moderate worldwide activity, with multiple M5+ quakes but no events reaching 6.5 or higher during the window. Historically, M6.5+ quakes average roughly one to two per month globally and occur sporadically rather than in tight clusters, making zero or one the most probable outcomes for any single week. With only August 9 remaining and no active seismic swarms or foreshock sequences reported by monitoring agencies, trader sentiment strongly favors zero events at 77.5% implied probability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions