Trader consensus on "No" at 91% reflects the statistical rarity of magnitude 8+ megaquakes, which average roughly one to two globally per year with no clustering expected in the final 23 days of August. Official USGS monitoring and recent seismic catalogs show only scattered events below magnitude 7, lacking the foreshock patterns or model consensus that would elevate short-term rupture probability on major subduction zones. Japan’s Nankai Trough advisories remain tied to 30-year windows, with one-week alerts at roughly 1%. While an unforeseen stress transfer or sudden foreshock swarm could still trigger an event, current observational data and baseline recurrence intervals strongly support the market-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMegaquake by August 31?
Megaquake by August 31?
9% chance
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
9% chance
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on "No" at 91% reflects the statistical rarity of magnitude 8+ megaquakes, which average roughly one to two globally per year with no clustering expected in the final 23 days of August. Official USGS monitoring and recent seismic catalogs show only scattered events below magnitude 7, lacking the foreshock patterns or model consensus that would elevate short-term rupture probability on major subduction zones. Japan’s Nankai Trough advisories remain tied to 30-year windows, with one-week alerts at roughly 1%. While an unforeseen stress transfer or sudden foreshock swarm could still trigger an event, current observational data and baseline recurrence intervals strongly support the market-implied odds.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 12:50 PM ET
Volume
$1,620End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 12:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on "No" at 91% reflects the statistical rarity of magnitude 8+ megaquakes, which average roughly one to two globally per year with no clustering expected in the final 23 days of August. Official USGS monitoring and recent seismic catalogs show only scattered events below magnitude 7, lacking the foreshock patterns or model consensus that would elevate short-term rupture probability on major subduction zones. Japan’s Nankai Trough advisories remain tied to 30-year windows, with one-week alerts at roughly 1%. While an unforeseen stress transfer or sudden foreshock swarm could still trigger an event, current observational data and baseline recurrence intervals strongly support the market-implied odds.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$1,620End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 12:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on "No" at 91% reflects the statistical rarity of magnitude 8+ megaquakes, which average roughly one to two globally per year with no clustering expected in the final 23 days of August. Official USGS monitoring and recent seismic catalogs show only scattered events below magnitude 7, lacking the foreshock patterns or model consensus that would elevate short-term rupture probability on major subduction zones. Japan’s Nankai Trough advisories remain tied to 30-year windows, with one-week alerts at roughly 1%. While an unforeseen stress transfer or sudden foreshock swarm could still trigger an event, current observational data and baseline recurrence intervals strongly support the market-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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