The ongoing severe heatwave across South Korea, with KMA heat warnings active for Busan and nearby regions amid record highs exceeding 40°C in southeastern areas like Yangsan, drives trader consensus toward a 36°C maximum on August 8. Persistent high-pressure systems, clear skies, and warm southerly flows are sustaining elevated daytime temperatures, pushing recent official forecasts and model runs into the mid-30s Celsius range. Historical August baselines for Busan average 29–31°C highs, but current conditions have already produced peaks near 39°C earlier in the month, elevating the implied probability for 36°C (63.5%) while capping odds for 37°C or above. Updated KMA short-range guidance and any afternoon observations will likely refine these market-implied odds before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Busan on August 8?
Highest temperature in Busan on August 8?
36°C 94%
37°C 5.2%
38°C <1%
39°C or higher <1%
$37,075 Vol.
$37,075 Vol.
Aug 8, 2026
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
94%
37°C
5%
38°C
1%
39°C or higher
<1%
36°C 94%
37°C 5.2%
38°C <1%
39°C or higher <1%
$37,075 Vol.
$37,075 Vol.
Aug 8, 2026
29°C or below
$1,522 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$800 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$653 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$2,634 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$6,071 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$4,436 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$5,057 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$6,106 Vol.
94%
37°C
$5,610 Vol.
5%
38°C
$3,413 Vol.
1%
39°C or higher
$770 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Gimhae Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Gimhae Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/busan/RKPK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The ongoing severe heatwave across South Korea, with KMA heat warnings active for Busan and nearby regions amid record highs exceeding 40°C in southeastern areas like Yangsan, drives trader consensus toward a 36°C maximum on August 8. Persistent high-pressure systems, clear skies, and warm southerly flows are sustaining elevated daytime temperatures, pushing recent official forecasts and model runs into the mid-30s Celsius range. Historical August baselines for Busan average 29–31°C highs, but current conditions have already produced peaks near 39°C earlier in the month, elevating the implied probability for 36°C (63.5%) while capping odds for 37°C or above. Updated KMA short-range guidance and any afternoon observations will likely refine these market-implied odds before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Gimhae Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Gimhae Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/busan/RKPK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Gimhae Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Gimhae Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/busan/RKPK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 6, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$37,075End Date
Aug 8, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/busan/RKPKResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Gimhae Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Gimhae Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/busan/RKPK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The ongoing severe heatwave across South Korea, with KMA heat warnings active for Busan and nearby regions amid record highs exceeding 40°C in southeastern areas like Yangsan, drives trader consensus toward a 36°C maximum on August 8. Persistent high-pressure systems, clear skies, and warm southerly flows are sustaining elevated daytime temperatures, pushing recent official forecasts and model runs into the mid-30s Celsius range. Historical August baselines for Busan average 29–31°C highs, but current conditions have already produced peaks near 39°C earlier in the month, elevating the implied probability for 36°C (63.5%) while capping odds for 37°C or above. Updated KMA short-range guidance and any afternoon observations will likely refine these market-implied odds before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Gimhae Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Gimhae Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/busan/RKPK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Gimhae Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Gimhae Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/busan/RKPK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$37,075End Date
Aug 8, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/busan/RKPKResolver
0x69c47De9D...The ongoing severe heatwave across South Korea, with KMA heat warnings active for Busan and nearby regions amid record highs exceeding 40°C in southeastern areas like Yangsan, drives trader consensus toward a 36°C maximum on August 8. Persistent high-pressure systems, clear skies, and warm southerly flows are sustaining elevated daytime temperatures, pushing recent official forecasts and model runs into the mid-30s Celsius range. Historical August baselines for Busan average 29–31°C highs, but current conditions have already produced peaks near 39°C earlier in the month, elevating the implied probability for 36°C (63.5%) while capping odds for 37°C or above. Updated KMA short-range guidance and any afternoon observations will likely refine these market-implied odds before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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