Recent model consensus from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration points to persistent cloud cover and heavy rainfall from an approaching tropical system on August 10, suppressing daytime heating and limiting nighttime radiative cooling to produce minimum temperatures near 26–28°C in Shanghai. High humidity and light winds associated with the precipitation further moderate overnight drops, while steering patterns keep the city under a moist, overcast regime rather than clearer conditions that would allow lows below 25°C. With 27°C and 28°C outcomes nearly tied in market-implied odds, traders are pricing residual uncertainty in the latest ensemble runs and potential timing shifts in the rain band. Historical August climatology shows typical minima around 25–26°C, but the current setup favors the higher end of that range. Updated forecasts ahead of the 48-hour window will likely refine these thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on August 10?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on August 10?
27°C 68%
28°C 16%
26°C 12%
29°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 10, 2026
21°C or below
2%
22°C
5%
23°C
5%
24°C
5%
25°C
7%
26°C
12%
27°C
68%
28°C
16%
29°C
8%
30°C
1%
31°C or higher
1%
27°C 68%
28°C 16%
26°C 12%
29°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 10, 2026
21°C or below
$12 Vol.
2%
22°C
$12 Vol.
5%
23°C
$12 Vol.
5%
24°C
$0 Vol.
5%
25°C
$0 Vol.
7%
26°C
$11 Vol.
12%
27°C
$13 Vol.
68%
28°C
$0 Vol.
16%
29°C
$18 Vol.
8%
30°C
$27 Vol.
1%
31°C or higher
$27 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration points to persistent cloud cover and heavy rainfall from an approaching tropical system on August 10, suppressing daytime heating and limiting nighttime radiative cooling to produce minimum temperatures near 26–28°C in Shanghai. High humidity and light winds associated with the precipitation further moderate overnight drops, while steering patterns keep the city under a moist, overcast regime rather than clearer conditions that would allow lows below 25°C. With 27°C and 28°C outcomes nearly tied in market-implied odds, traders are pricing residual uncertainty in the latest ensemble runs and potential timing shifts in the rain band. Historical August climatology shows typical minima around 25–26°C, but the current setup favors the higher end of that range. Updated forecasts ahead of the 48-hour window will likely refine these thresholds.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 8, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$133End Date
Aug 10, 2026Market Opened
Aug 8, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration points to persistent cloud cover and heavy rainfall from an approaching tropical system on August 10, suppressing daytime heating and limiting nighttime radiative cooling to produce minimum temperatures near 26–28°C in Shanghai. High humidity and light winds associated with the precipitation further moderate overnight drops, while steering patterns keep the city under a moist, overcast regime rather than clearer conditions that would allow lows below 25°C. With 27°C and 28°C outcomes nearly tied in market-implied odds, traders are pricing residual uncertainty in the latest ensemble runs and potential timing shifts in the rain band. Historical August climatology shows typical minima around 25–26°C, but the current setup favors the higher end of that range. Updated forecasts ahead of the 48-hour window will likely refine these thresholds.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$133End Date
Aug 10, 2026Market Opened
Aug 8, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration points to persistent cloud cover and heavy rainfall from an approaching tropical system on August 10, suppressing daytime heating and limiting nighttime radiative cooling to produce minimum temperatures near 26–28°C in Shanghai. High humidity and light winds associated with the precipitation further moderate overnight drops, while steering patterns keep the city under a moist, overcast regime rather than clearer conditions that would allow lows below 25°C. With 27°C and 28°C outcomes nearly tied in market-implied odds, traders are pricing residual uncertainty in the latest ensemble runs and potential timing shifts in the rain band. Historical August climatology shows typical minima around 25–26°C, but the current setup favors the higher end of that range. Updated forecasts ahead of the 48-hour window will likely refine these thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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