Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for Tokyo indicate a minimum near 22°C on August 10 amid partly cloudy skies and a 50% chance of scattered showers, aligning with the market's tight clustering around 23–24°C. Typical early-August nocturnal cooling is moderated by high humidity above 70%, urban heat retention, and limited radiative loss under cloud cover, while daytime maxima near 30–33°C set the baseline for overnight lows. Model consensus shows modest variability tied to precipitation timing and wind patterns, with historical normals around 23.8°C providing context. Updated model runs and official briefings ahead of the date remain the key catalysts likely to shift trader-implied odds between the leading outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on August 10?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 10?
24°C 70%
23°C 32%
22°C 10%
25°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 10, 2026
18°C or below
1%
19°C
1%
20°C
1%
21°C
7%
22°C
10%
23°C
32%
24°C
63%
25°C
10%
26°C
7%
27°C
6%
28°C or higher
1%
24°C 70%
23°C 32%
22°C 10%
25°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 10, 2026
18°C or below
$27 Vol.
1%
19°C
$27 Vol.
1%
20°C
$32 Vol.
1%
21°C
$0 Vol.
7%
22°C
$0 Vol.
10%
23°C
$0 Vol.
32%
24°C
$5 Vol.
63%
25°C
$0 Vol.
10%
26°C
$0 Vol.
7%
27°C
$32 Vol.
6%
28°C or higher
$27 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for Tokyo indicate a minimum near 22°C on August 10 amid partly cloudy skies and a 50% chance of scattered showers, aligning with the market's tight clustering around 23–24°C. Typical early-August nocturnal cooling is moderated by high humidity above 70%, urban heat retention, and limited radiative loss under cloud cover, while daytime maxima near 30–33°C set the baseline for overnight lows. Model consensus shows modest variability tied to precipitation timing and wind patterns, with historical normals around 23.8°C providing context. Updated model runs and official briefings ahead of the date remain the key catalysts likely to shift trader-implied odds between the leading outcomes.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 8, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$151End Date
Aug 10, 2026Market Opened
Aug 8, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for Tokyo indicate a minimum near 22°C on August 10 amid partly cloudy skies and a 50% chance of scattered showers, aligning with the market's tight clustering around 23–24°C. Typical early-August nocturnal cooling is moderated by high humidity above 70%, urban heat retention, and limited radiative loss under cloud cover, while daytime maxima near 30–33°C set the baseline for overnight lows. Model consensus shows modest variability tied to precipitation timing and wind patterns, with historical normals around 23.8°C providing context. Updated model runs and official briefings ahead of the date remain the key catalysts likely to shift trader-implied odds between the leading outcomes.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$151End Date
Aug 10, 2026Market Opened
Aug 8, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for Tokyo indicate a minimum near 22°C on August 10 amid partly cloudy skies and a 50% chance of scattered showers, aligning with the market's tight clustering around 23–24°C. Typical early-August nocturnal cooling is moderated by high humidity above 70%, urban heat retention, and limited radiative loss under cloud cover, while daytime maxima near 30–33°C set the baseline for overnight lows. Model consensus shows modest variability tied to precipitation timing and wind patterns, with historical normals around 23.8°C providing context. Updated model runs and official briefings ahead of the date remain the key catalysts likely to shift trader-implied odds between the leading outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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