Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts indicate a mostly cloudy night ahead for Tokyo on August 9, with a projected minimum near 24–25°C under light winds and high humidity that limits radiative cooling. This aligns with typical early-August nocturnal conditions in the urban heat island, where average lows hover around 24°C and cloud cover often keeps temperatures from dropping further. Model consensus supports limited overnight cooling, positioning 25°C and 26°C as the dominant market-implied outcomes while making sub-24°C or 27°C+ scenarios less probable absent unexpected clear skies or frontal changes. Updated guidance later today could refine these probabilities ahead of the daily minimum observation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on August 9?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 9?
26°C 54%
25°C 40%
27°C 4%
23°C 2%
NEW
NEW
Aug 9, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
2%
24°C
2%
25°C
40%
26°C
54%
27°C
4%
28°C
2%
29°C
1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
26°C 54%
25°C 40%
27°C 4%
23°C 2%
NEW
NEW
Aug 9, 2026
21°C or below
$193 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$197 Vol.
1%
23°C
$159 Vol.
2%
24°C
$220 Vol.
2%
25°C
$492 Vol.
40%
26°C
$486 Vol.
54%
27°C
$258 Vol.
4%
28°C
$109 Vol.
2%
29°C
$192 Vol.
1%
30°C
$178 Vol.
<1%
31°C or higher
$179 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts indicate a mostly cloudy night ahead for Tokyo on August 9, with a projected minimum near 24–25°C under light winds and high humidity that limits radiative cooling. This aligns with typical early-August nocturnal conditions in the urban heat island, where average lows hover around 24°C and cloud cover often keeps temperatures from dropping further. Model consensus supports limited overnight cooling, positioning 25°C and 26°C as the dominant market-implied outcomes while making sub-24°C or 27°C+ scenarios less probable absent unexpected clear skies or frontal changes. Updated guidance later today could refine these probabilities ahead of the daily minimum observation.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$2,665End Date
Aug 9, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts indicate a mostly cloudy night ahead for Tokyo on August 9, with a projected minimum near 24–25°C under light winds and high humidity that limits radiative cooling. This aligns with typical early-August nocturnal conditions in the urban heat island, where average lows hover around 24°C and cloud cover often keeps temperatures from dropping further. Model consensus supports limited overnight cooling, positioning 25°C and 26°C as the dominant market-implied outcomes while making sub-24°C or 27°C+ scenarios less probable absent unexpected clear skies or frontal changes. Updated guidance later today could refine these probabilities ahead of the daily minimum observation.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,665End Date
Aug 9, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts indicate a mostly cloudy night ahead for Tokyo on August 9, with a projected minimum near 24–25°C under light winds and high humidity that limits radiative cooling. This aligns with typical early-August nocturnal conditions in the urban heat island, where average lows hover around 24°C and cloud cover often keeps temperatures from dropping further. Model consensus supports limited overnight cooling, positioning 25°C and 26°C as the dominant market-implied outcomes while making sub-24°C or 27°C+ scenarios less probable absent unexpected clear skies or frontal changes. Updated guidance later today could refine these probabilities ahead of the daily minimum observation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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