Traders assign the highest implied probability (29.5%) to an 82-83°F low in Miami on August 9 because National Weather Service and model guidance project overnight temperatures stabilizing near that range under typical late-summer conditions of high humidity, light easterly winds, and urban heat retention. Recent observations show minimal diurnal cooling, with lows holding in the upper 70s to low 80s amid scattered shower activity that limits radiational cooling. Secondary probabilities cluster around 78-79°F (12.5%) and 84-85°F (15%) reflect uncertainty in cloud cover and any late-day convection that could alter the minimum by a degree or two. Historical August climatology places average Miami lows near 78°F, yet persistent warm Gulf moisture this season has kept recent readings elevated, supporting the current market skew toward the mid-80s threshold while leaving room for modest downward revisions if clearer skies develop overnight.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Miami on August 9?
Lowest temperature in Miami on August 9?
82-83°F 31%
80-81°F 20%
84-85°F 15%
78-79°F 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 9, 2026
71°F or below
1%
72-73°F
5%
74-75°F
8%
76-77°F
8%
78-79°F
12%
80-81°F
12%
82-83°F
31%
84-85°F
15%
86-87°F
10%
88-89°F
1%
90°F or higher
<1%
82-83°F 31%
80-81°F 20%
84-85°F 15%
78-79°F 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 9, 2026
71°F or below
$6 Vol.
1%
72-73°F
$27 Vol.
5%
74-75°F
$10 Vol.
8%
76-77°F
$6 Vol.
8%
78-79°F
$6 Vol.
12%
80-81°F
$36 Vol.
12%
82-83°F
$103 Vol.
31%
84-85°F
$22 Vol.
15%
86-87°F
$33 Vol.
10%
88-89°F
$36 Vol.
1%
90°F or higher
$6 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign the highest implied probability (29.5%) to an 82-83°F low in Miami on August 9 because National Weather Service and model guidance project overnight temperatures stabilizing near that range under typical late-summer conditions of high humidity, light easterly winds, and urban heat retention. Recent observations show minimal diurnal cooling, with lows holding in the upper 70s to low 80s amid scattered shower activity that limits radiational cooling. Secondary probabilities cluster around 78-79°F (12.5%) and 84-85°F (15%) reflect uncertainty in cloud cover and any late-day convection that could alter the minimum by a degree or two. Historical August climatology places average Miami lows near 78°F, yet persistent warm Gulf moisture this season has kept recent readings elevated, supporting the current market skew toward the mid-80s threshold while leaving room for modest downward revisions if clearer skies develop overnight.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 7, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Volume
$291End Date
Aug 9, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign the highest implied probability (29.5%) to an 82-83°F low in Miami on August 9 because National Weather Service and model guidance project overnight temperatures stabilizing near that range under typical late-summer conditions of high humidity, light easterly winds, and urban heat retention. Recent observations show minimal diurnal cooling, with lows holding in the upper 70s to low 80s amid scattered shower activity that limits radiational cooling. Secondary probabilities cluster around 78-79°F (12.5%) and 84-85°F (15%) reflect uncertainty in cloud cover and any late-day convection that could alter the minimum by a degree or two. Historical August climatology places average Miami lows near 78°F, yet persistent warm Gulf moisture this season has kept recent readings elevated, supporting the current market skew toward the mid-80s threshold while leaving room for modest downward revisions if clearer skies develop overnight.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$291End Date
Aug 9, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign the highest implied probability (29.5%) to an 82-83°F low in Miami on August 9 because National Weather Service and model guidance project overnight temperatures stabilizing near that range under typical late-summer conditions of high humidity, light easterly winds, and urban heat retention. Recent observations show minimal diurnal cooling, with lows holding in the upper 70s to low 80s amid scattered shower activity that limits radiational cooling. Secondary probabilities cluster around 78-79°F (12.5%) and 84-85°F (15%) reflect uncertainty in cloud cover and any late-day convection that could alter the minimum by a degree or two. Historical August climatology places average Miami lows near 78°F, yet persistent warm Gulf moisture this season has kept recent readings elevated, supporting the current market skew toward the mid-80s threshold while leaving room for modest downward revisions if clearer skies develop overnight.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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