Latest National Weather Service and AccuWeather guidance points to a minimum temperature near 77°F in New York City on August 9, with model consensus supporting the tightly matched 36% market probabilities on the 76–77°F and 78–79°F bins. Persistent southerly flow, elevated dew points near 70°F, and the urban heat island effect are limiting nocturnal radiative cooling, keeping overnight lows several degrees above the long-term August average of about 70°F. Scattered thunderstorm activity through the evening may further modulate the exact low depending on cloud cover timing. Traders appear to weigh minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing and any late-day sea breeze against climatological baselines, with fresh guidance expected from the next NWS update.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on August 9?
Lowest temperature in NYC on August 9?
76-77°F 20%
78-79°F 19%
80-81°F 17%
82-83°F 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 9, 2026
65°F or below
<1%
66-67°F
2%
68-69°F
4%
70-71°F
3%
72-73°F
7%
74-75°F
8%
76-77°F
20%
78-79°F
19%
80-81°F
17%
82-83°F
11%
84°F or higher
3%
76-77°F 20%
78-79°F 19%
80-81°F 17%
82-83°F 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 9, 2026
65°F or below
$28 Vol.
<1%
66-67°F
$50 Vol.
2%
68-69°F
$41 Vol.
4%
70-71°F
$6 Vol.
3%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
7%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
8%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
20%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
19%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
17%
82-83°F
$1 Vol.
11%
84°F or higher
$47 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest National Weather Service and AccuWeather guidance points to a minimum temperature near 77°F in New York City on August 9, with model consensus supporting the tightly matched 36% market probabilities on the 76–77°F and 78–79°F bins. Persistent southerly flow, elevated dew points near 70°F, and the urban heat island effect are limiting nocturnal radiative cooling, keeping overnight lows several degrees above the long-term August average of about 70°F. Scattered thunderstorm activity through the evening may further modulate the exact low depending on cloud cover timing. Traders appear to weigh minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing and any late-day sea breeze against climatological baselines, with fresh guidance expected from the next NWS update.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 7, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Volume
$172End Date
Aug 9, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest National Weather Service and AccuWeather guidance points to a minimum temperature near 77°F in New York City on August 9, with model consensus supporting the tightly matched 36% market probabilities on the 76–77°F and 78–79°F bins. Persistent southerly flow, elevated dew points near 70°F, and the urban heat island effect are limiting nocturnal radiative cooling, keeping overnight lows several degrees above the long-term August average of about 70°F. Scattered thunderstorm activity through the evening may further modulate the exact low depending on cloud cover timing. Traders appear to weigh minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing and any late-day sea breeze against climatological baselines, with fresh guidance expected from the next NWS update.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$172End Date
Aug 9, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest National Weather Service and AccuWeather guidance points to a minimum temperature near 77°F in New York City on August 9, with model consensus supporting the tightly matched 36% market probabilities on the 76–77°F and 78–79°F bins. Persistent southerly flow, elevated dew points near 70°F, and the urban heat island effect are limiting nocturnal radiative cooling, keeping overnight lows several degrees above the long-term August average of about 70°F. Scattered thunderstorm activity through the evening may further modulate the exact low depending on cloud cover timing. Traders appear to weigh minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing and any late-day sea breeze against climatological baselines, with fresh guidance expected from the next NWS update.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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