Trader consensus has converged on 25°C as the highest temperature in São Paulo on August 7, 2026, at near-100% implied probability. This positioning stems from post-frontal cooling across southeastern Brazil, where a southward-moving cold front introduced a stable maritime air mass that limited daytime boundary-layer warming and increased cloud cover, keeping maxima aligned with the region’s climatological August average of 23–25°C. Official model guidance from regional meteorological agencies showed minimal spread once surface observations confirmed suppressed sensible heat flux. An unseasonably strong thermal ridge or delayed frontal passage could have pushed readings higher, but current data indicate those conditions did not materialize.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 7?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 7?
25°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$112,870 Vol.
$112,870 Vol.
Aug 7, 2026
22°C or below
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
Yes
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C or higher
No
25°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$112,870 Vol.
$112,870 Vol.
Aug 7, 2026
22°C or below
$24,635 Vol.
No
23°C
$9,539 Vol.
No
24°C
$15,028 Vol.
No
25°C
$18,800 Vol.
Yes
26°C
$11,663 Vol.
No
27°C
$7,229 Vol.
No
28°C
$6,639 Vol.
No
29°C
$10,573 Vol.
No
30°C
$1,946 Vol.
No
31°C
$5,763 Vol.
No
32°C or higher
$1,055 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus has converged on 25°C as the highest temperature in São Paulo on August 7, 2026, at near-100% implied probability. This positioning stems from post-frontal cooling across southeastern Brazil, where a southward-moving cold front introduced a stable maritime air mass that limited daytime boundary-layer warming and increased cloud cover, keeping maxima aligned with the region’s climatological August average of 23–25°C. Official model guidance from regional meteorological agencies showed minimal spread once surface observations confirmed suppressed sensible heat flux. An unseasonably strong thermal ridge or delayed frontal passage could have pushed readings higher, but current data indicate those conditions did not materialize.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 5, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Volume
$112,870End Date
Aug 7, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus has converged on 25°C as the highest temperature in São Paulo on August 7, 2026, at near-100% implied probability. This positioning stems from post-frontal cooling across southeastern Brazil, where a southward-moving cold front introduced a stable maritime air mass that limited daytime boundary-layer warming and increased cloud cover, keeping maxima aligned with the region’s climatological August average of 23–25°C. Official model guidance from regional meteorological agencies showed minimal spread once surface observations confirmed suppressed sensible heat flux. An unseasonably strong thermal ridge or delayed frontal passage could have pushed readings higher, but current data indicate those conditions did not materialize.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$112,870End Date
Aug 7, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus has converged on 25°C as the highest temperature in São Paulo on August 7, 2026, at near-100% implied probability. This positioning stems from post-frontal cooling across southeastern Brazil, where a southward-moving cold front introduced a stable maritime air mass that limited daytime boundary-layer warming and increased cloud cover, keeping maxima aligned with the region’s climatological August average of 23–25°C. Official model guidance from regional meteorological agencies showed minimal spread once surface observations confirmed suppressed sensible heat flux. An unseasonably strong thermal ridge or delayed frontal passage could have pushed readings higher, but current data indicate those conditions did not materialize.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions