Recent National Weather Service and private forecast models indicate a warm, humid air mass dominating the Northeast with overnight dew points in the low to mid-70s and limited radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies, positioning the LaGuardia Airport low near 76–77 °F as the consensus outcome. This aligns with the market’s leading 43.5 % probability for that bin and the secondary 24.5 % weighting on 74–75 °F, reflecting minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing and any residual shower activity. Historical August climatology for central NYC shows average overnight lows near 70 °F, yet the current pattern lacks the typical post-frontal clearing that would allow deeper cooling, keeping probabilities concentrated in the mid-70s range. Updated model runs and the next National Weather Service forecast discussion are the key near-term catalysts that could shift implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on August 8?
Lowest temperature in NYC on August 8?
76-77°F 39%
74-75°F 29%
78-79°F 12%
72-73°F 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 8, 2026
65°F or below
1%
66-67°F
<1%
68-69°F
1%
70-71°F
1%
72-73°F
9%
74-75°F
29%
76-77°F
44%
78-79°F
12%
80-81°F
1%
82-83°F
<1%
84°F or higher
<1%
76-77°F 39%
74-75°F 29%
78-79°F 12%
72-73°F 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 8, 2026
65°F or below
$788 Vol.
1%
66-67°F
$542 Vol.
<1%
68-69°F
$182 Vol.
1%
70-71°F
$435 Vol.
1%
72-73°F
$255 Vol.
9%
74-75°F
$341 Vol.
29%
76-77°F
$1,005 Vol.
44%
78-79°F
$288 Vol.
12%
80-81°F
$685 Vol.
1%
82-83°F
$728 Vol.
<1%
84°F or higher
$600 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and private forecast models indicate a warm, humid air mass dominating the Northeast with overnight dew points in the low to mid-70s and limited radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies, positioning the LaGuardia Airport low near 76–77 °F as the consensus outcome. This aligns with the market’s leading 43.5 % probability for that bin and the secondary 24.5 % weighting on 74–75 °F, reflecting minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing and any residual shower activity. Historical August climatology for central NYC shows average overnight lows near 70 °F, yet the current pattern lacks the typical post-frontal clearing that would allow deeper cooling, keeping probabilities concentrated in the mid-70s range. Updated model runs and the next National Weather Service forecast discussion are the key near-term catalysts that could shift implied odds.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 6, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Volume
$5,849End Date
Aug 8, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and private forecast models indicate a warm, humid air mass dominating the Northeast with overnight dew points in the low to mid-70s and limited radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies, positioning the LaGuardia Airport low near 76–77 °F as the consensus outcome. This aligns with the market’s leading 43.5 % probability for that bin and the secondary 24.5 % weighting on 74–75 °F, reflecting minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing and any residual shower activity. Historical August climatology for central NYC shows average overnight lows near 70 °F, yet the current pattern lacks the typical post-frontal clearing that would allow deeper cooling, keeping probabilities concentrated in the mid-70s range. Updated model runs and the next National Weather Service forecast discussion are the key near-term catalysts that could shift implied odds.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5,849End Date
Aug 8, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and private forecast models indicate a warm, humid air mass dominating the Northeast with overnight dew points in the low to mid-70s and limited radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies, positioning the LaGuardia Airport low near 76–77 °F as the consensus outcome. This aligns with the market’s leading 43.5 % probability for that bin and the secondary 24.5 % weighting on 74–75 °F, reflecting minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing and any residual shower activity. Historical August climatology for central NYC shows average overnight lows near 70 °F, yet the current pattern lacks the typical post-frontal clearing that would allow deeper cooling, keeping probabilities concentrated in the mid-70s range. Updated model runs and the next National Weather Service forecast discussion are the key near-term catalysts that could shift implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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