Trader consensus has converged on an 78-79°F low for Miami on August 7 because official National Weather Service forecasts and climatological data for the subtropical summer consistently pointed to overnight temperatures in that narrow range at the Miami International Airport reporting station. Persistent high pressure, elevated humidity, and limited nocturnal radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies with scattered storms kept the minimum from dropping further, aligning with typical August baselines near 78-82°F. The 100% market-implied probability reflects this tight agreement between model guidance and historical precedent. Only an unexpected strong cold front or major measurement revision at the official station could realistically alter the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Miami on August 7?
Lowest temperature in Miami on August 7?
78-79°F 100.0%
72-73°F 1.7%
69°F or below <1%
70-71°F <1%
$8,829 Vol.
$8,829 Vol.
Aug 7, 2026
69°F or below
<1%
70-71°F
<1%
72-73°F
2%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
100%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
<1%
84-85°F
<1%
86-87°F
<1%
88°F or higher
<1%
78-79°F 100.0%
72-73°F 1.7%
69°F or below <1%
70-71°F <1%
$8,829 Vol.
$8,829 Vol.
Aug 7, 2026
69°F or below
$625 Vol.
<1%
70-71°F
$968 Vol.
<1%
72-73°F
$629 Vol.
2%
74-75°F
$808 Vol.
<1%
76-77°F
$885 Vol.
<1%
78-79°F
$1,502 Vol.
100%
80-81°F
$1,031 Vol.
<1%
82-83°F
$263 Vol.
<1%
84-85°F
$1,126 Vol.
<1%
86-87°F
$33 Vol.
<1%
88°F or higher
$959 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus has converged on an 78-79°F low for Miami on August 7 because official National Weather Service forecasts and climatological data for the subtropical summer consistently pointed to overnight temperatures in that narrow range at the Miami International Airport reporting station. Persistent high pressure, elevated humidity, and limited nocturnal radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies with scattered storms kept the minimum from dropping further, aligning with typical August baselines near 78-82°F. The 100% market-implied probability reflects this tight agreement between model guidance and historical precedent. Only an unexpected strong cold front or major measurement revision at the official station could realistically alter the outcome.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 5, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Volume
$8,829End Date
Aug 7, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus has converged on an 78-79°F low for Miami on August 7 because official National Weather Service forecasts and climatological data for the subtropical summer consistently pointed to overnight temperatures in that narrow range at the Miami International Airport reporting station. Persistent high pressure, elevated humidity, and limited nocturnal radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies with scattered storms kept the minimum from dropping further, aligning with typical August baselines near 78-82°F. The 100% market-implied probability reflects this tight agreement between model guidance and historical precedent. Only an unexpected strong cold front or major measurement revision at the official station could realistically alter the outcome.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$8,829End Date
Aug 7, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus has converged on an 78-79°F low for Miami on August 7 because official National Weather Service forecasts and climatological data for the subtropical summer consistently pointed to overnight temperatures in that narrow range at the Miami International Airport reporting station. Persistent high pressure, elevated humidity, and limited nocturnal radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies with scattered storms kept the minimum from dropping further, aligning with typical August baselines near 78-82°F. The 100% market-implied probability reflects this tight agreement between model guidance and historical precedent. Only an unexpected strong cold front or major measurement revision at the official station could realistically alter the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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