Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and regional model consensus point to Tokyo’s overnight minimum on August 8 settling at 27 °C, driven by persistent high-pressure ridging, elevated humidity, and urban heat-island effects that limit radiative cooling. Ensemble runs show only modest overnight drops under light winds and patchy cloud cover observed in the past 48 hours, consistent with late-summer climatology placing typical lows between 26–28 °C. These conditions have anchored trader sentiment, producing the 70 % implied probability on 27 °C and secondary support for 26 °C. Final resolution depends on official station readings at 06:00–09:00 JST; any unexpected increase in wind or clearing skies could shift the outcome toward the lower bin.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on August 8?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 8?
27°C 82%
26°C 17%
25°C 4%
24°C 2%
NEW
NEW
Aug 8, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
2%
25°C
4%
26°C
30%
27°C
70%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
27°C 82%
26°C 17%
25°C 4%
24°C 2%
NEW
NEW
Aug 8, 2026
21°C or below
$170 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$233 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$398 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$380 Vol.
2%
25°C
$281 Vol.
4%
26°C
$846 Vol.
30%
27°C
$2,220 Vol.
70%
28°C
$2,323 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$385 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$72 Vol.
<1%
31°C or higher
$313 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and regional model consensus point to Tokyo’s overnight minimum on August 8 settling at 27 °C, driven by persistent high-pressure ridging, elevated humidity, and urban heat-island effects that limit radiative cooling. Ensemble runs show only modest overnight drops under light winds and patchy cloud cover observed in the past 48 hours, consistent with late-summer climatology placing typical lows between 26–28 °C. These conditions have anchored trader sentiment, producing the 70 % implied probability on 27 °C and secondary support for 26 °C. Final resolution depends on official station readings at 06:00–09:00 JST; any unexpected increase in wind or clearing skies could shift the outcome toward the lower bin.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 6, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$7,622End Date
Aug 8, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and regional model consensus point to Tokyo’s overnight minimum on August 8 settling at 27 °C, driven by persistent high-pressure ridging, elevated humidity, and urban heat-island effects that limit radiative cooling. Ensemble runs show only modest overnight drops under light winds and patchy cloud cover observed in the past 48 hours, consistent with late-summer climatology placing typical lows between 26–28 °C. These conditions have anchored trader sentiment, producing the 70 % implied probability on 27 °C and secondary support for 26 °C. Final resolution depends on official station readings at 06:00–09:00 JST; any unexpected increase in wind or clearing skies could shift the outcome toward the lower bin.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$7,622End Date
Aug 8, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and regional model consensus point to Tokyo’s overnight minimum on August 8 settling at 27 °C, driven by persistent high-pressure ridging, elevated humidity, and urban heat-island effects that limit radiative cooling. Ensemble runs show only modest overnight drops under light winds and patchy cloud cover observed in the past 48 hours, consistent with late-summer climatology placing typical lows between 26–28 °C. These conditions have anchored trader sentiment, producing the 70 % implied probability on 27 °C and secondary support for 26 °C. Final resolution depends on official station readings at 06:00–09:00 JST; any unexpected increase in wind or clearing skies could shift the outcome toward the lower bin.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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