A strong cold front that crossed South Africa over the August 8–10 weekend has cooled the region, anchoring trader consensus around 22–23 °C for Cape Town’s August 12 maximum. Post-frontal high pressure is expected to promote clearer skies and modest warming via subsidence and reduced marine influence, yet residual cool air advection from the south Atlantic and lingering low-level moisture keep the distribution tight. Historical August highs average 17–18 °C, so current model spreads—driven by variable wind direction and possible onshore flow—explain why 26 °C or higher retains a 20 % implied probability while sub-21 °C outcomes remain possible if the ridge builds more slowly. Updated SAWS and ECMWF guidance on the 11th will clarify whether ridging strengthens enough to push readings above the leading bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Cape Town on August 12?
Highest temperature in Cape Town on August 12?
26°C or higher 39%
22°C 31%
23°C 29%
21°C 17%
NEW
NEW
Aug 12, 2026
16°C or below
1%
17°C
1%
18°C
1%
19°C
1%
20°C
11%
21°C
17%
22°C
31%
23°C
29%
24°C
11%
25°C
4%
26°C or higher
39%
26°C or higher 39%
22°C 31%
23°C 29%
21°C 17%
NEW
NEW
Aug 12, 2026
16°C or below
$2 Vol.
1%
17°C
$2 Vol.
1%
18°C
$12 Vol.
1%
19°C
$12 Vol.
1%
20°C
$0 Vol.
11%
21°C
$0 Vol.
17%
22°C
$0 Vol.
31%
23°C
$10 Vol.
29%
24°C
$0 Vol.
11%
25°C
$0 Vol.
4%
26°C or higher
$39 Vol.
39%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.A strong cold front that crossed South Africa over the August 8–10 weekend has cooled the region, anchoring trader consensus around 22–23 °C for Cape Town’s August 12 maximum. Post-frontal high pressure is expected to promote clearer skies and modest warming via subsidence and reduced marine influence, yet residual cool air advection from the south Atlantic and lingering low-level moisture keep the distribution tight. Historical August highs average 17–18 °C, so current model spreads—driven by variable wind direction and possible onshore flow—explain why 26 °C or higher retains a 20 % implied probability while sub-21 °C outcomes remain possible if the ridge builds more slowly. Updated SAWS and ECMWF guidance on the 11th will clarify whether ridging strengthens enough to push readings above the leading bins.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 10, 2026, 1:04 AM ET
Volume
$77End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 1:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.A strong cold front that crossed South Africa over the August 8–10 weekend has cooled the region, anchoring trader consensus around 22–23 °C for Cape Town’s August 12 maximum. Post-frontal high pressure is expected to promote clearer skies and modest warming via subsidence and reduced marine influence, yet residual cool air advection from the south Atlantic and lingering low-level moisture keep the distribution tight. Historical August highs average 17–18 °C, so current model spreads—driven by variable wind direction and possible onshore flow—explain why 26 °C or higher retains a 20 % implied probability while sub-21 °C outcomes remain possible if the ridge builds more slowly. Updated SAWS and ECMWF guidance on the 11th will clarify whether ridging strengthens enough to push readings above the leading bins.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$77End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 1:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACTResolver
0x69c47De9D...A strong cold front that crossed South Africa over the August 8–10 weekend has cooled the region, anchoring trader consensus around 22–23 °C for Cape Town’s August 12 maximum. Post-frontal high pressure is expected to promote clearer skies and modest warming via subsidence and reduced marine influence, yet residual cool air advection from the south Atlantic and lingering low-level moisture keep the distribution tight. Historical August highs average 17–18 °C, so current model spreads—driven by variable wind direction and possible onshore flow—explain why 26 °C or higher retains a 20 % implied probability while sub-21 °C outcomes remain possible if the ridge builds more slowly. Updated SAWS and ECMWF guidance on the 11th will clarify whether ridging strengthens enough to push readings above the leading bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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