Current ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and ECMWF place Paris overnight lows for August 12 near 17–19°C under a stable high-pressure regime with light winds and limited cloud cover that supports moderate radiative cooling. This range aligns with climatological August baselines of 15–18°C while reflecting the influence of an ongoing warm air mass across northern France. Model spread arises mainly from subtle differences in boundary-layer moisture and timing of any weak frontal passage, creating the observed tight clustering of trader probabilities around 17–19°C. Updated runs expected within 24–48 hours will refine the minimum ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Paris on August 12?
Lowest temperature in Paris on August 12?
17°C 28%
18°C 27%
19°C 27%
16°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 12, 2026
14°C or below
5%
15°C
7%
16°C
10%
17°C
28%
18°C
27%
19°C
27%
20°C
10%
21°C
6%
22°C
7%
23°C
2%
24°C or higher
3%
17°C 28%
18°C 27%
19°C 27%
16°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 12, 2026
14°C or below
$12 Vol.
5%
15°C
$0 Vol.
7%
16°C
$0 Vol.
10%
17°C
$0 Vol.
28%
18°C
$0 Vol.
27%
19°C
$0 Vol.
27%
20°C
$0 Vol.
10%
21°C
$10 Vol.
6%
22°C
$12 Vol.
7%
23°C
$12 Vol.
2%
24°C or higher
$12 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and ECMWF place Paris overnight lows for August 12 near 17–19°C under a stable high-pressure regime with light winds and limited cloud cover that supports moderate radiative cooling. This range aligns with climatological August baselines of 15–18°C while reflecting the influence of an ongoing warm air mass across northern France. Model spread arises mainly from subtle differences in boundary-layer moisture and timing of any weak frontal passage, creating the observed tight clustering of trader probabilities around 17–19°C. Updated runs expected within 24–48 hours will refine the minimum ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$58End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and ECMWF place Paris overnight lows for August 12 near 17–19°C under a stable high-pressure regime with light winds and limited cloud cover that supports moderate radiative cooling. This range aligns with climatological August baselines of 15–18°C while reflecting the influence of an ongoing warm air mass across northern France. Model spread arises mainly from subtle differences in boundary-layer moisture and timing of any weak frontal passage, creating the observed tight clustering of trader probabilities around 17–19°C. Updated runs expected within 24–48 hours will refine the minimum ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$58End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and ECMWF place Paris overnight lows for August 12 near 17–19°C under a stable high-pressure regime with light winds and limited cloud cover that supports moderate radiative cooling. This range aligns with climatological August baselines of 15–18°C while reflecting the influence of an ongoing warm air mass across northern France. Model spread arises mainly from subtle differences in boundary-layer moisture and timing of any weak frontal passage, creating the observed tight clustering of trader probabilities around 17–19°C. Updated runs expected within 24–48 hours will refine the minimum ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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