Latest numerical weather prediction ensembles from Météo-France and the ECMWF place Paris overnight minima for August 11 primarily in the 16–19 °C range, aligning with the market’s concentration of probability on 17 °C (45 %) and adjacent outcomes. Following several days of elevated temperatures with daytime highs above 32 °C, a moderating westerly flow is expected to limit nocturnal cooling while preventing stronger radiational drops. Climatological August minima average near 15 °C, yet the current synoptic setup and limited cloud cover favor values a few degrees above that baseline. Fresh model runs and observational updates overnight will narrow uncertainty before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Paris on August 11?
Lowest temperature in Paris on August 11?
17°C 47%
18°C 27%
16°C 21%
15°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 11, 2026
14°C or below
1%
15°C
5%
16°C
21%
17°C
47%
18°C
27%
19°C
5%
20°C
3%
21°C
1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C or higher
<1%
17°C 47%
18°C 27%
16°C 21%
15°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 11, 2026
14°C or below
$133 Vol.
1%
15°C
$57 Vol.
5%
16°C
$227 Vol.
21%
17°C
$151 Vol.
47%
18°C
$91 Vol.
27%
19°C
$46 Vol.
5%
20°C
$39 Vol.
3%
21°C
$276 Vol.
1%
22°C
$19 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$19 Vol.
<1%
24°C or higher
$211 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction ensembles from Météo-France and the ECMWF place Paris overnight minima for August 11 primarily in the 16–19 °C range, aligning with the market’s concentration of probability on 17 °C (45 %) and adjacent outcomes. Following several days of elevated temperatures with daytime highs above 32 °C, a moderating westerly flow is expected to limit nocturnal cooling while preventing stronger radiational drops. Climatological August minima average near 15 °C, yet the current synoptic setup and limited cloud cover favor values a few degrees above that baseline. Fresh model runs and observational updates overnight will narrow uncertainty before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 9, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$1,268End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction ensembles from Météo-France and the ECMWF place Paris overnight minima for August 11 primarily in the 16–19 °C range, aligning with the market’s concentration of probability on 17 °C (45 %) and adjacent outcomes. Following several days of elevated temperatures with daytime highs above 32 °C, a moderating westerly flow is expected to limit nocturnal cooling while preventing stronger radiational drops. Climatological August minima average near 15 °C, yet the current synoptic setup and limited cloud cover favor values a few degrees above that baseline. Fresh model runs and observational updates overnight will narrow uncertainty before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,268End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest numerical weather prediction ensembles from Météo-France and the ECMWF place Paris overnight minima for August 11 primarily in the 16–19 °C range, aligning with the market’s concentration of probability on 17 °C (45 %) and adjacent outcomes. Following several days of elevated temperatures with daytime highs above 32 °C, a moderating westerly flow is expected to limit nocturnal cooling while preventing stronger radiational drops. Climatological August minima average near 15 °C, yet the current synoptic setup and limited cloud cover favor values a few degrees above that baseline. Fresh model runs and observational updates overnight will narrow uncertainty before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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