Recent ensemble forecasts from major meteorological centers converge on a Moscow daytime maximum of 22–23 °C for August 9, driving the market’s tight 41.5 % / 34 % split between those outcomes. Subtle differences in predicted cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and weak frontal passage determine whether the peak reaches the higher end of the envelope, while light southerly flow keeps the reading well within climatological norms for early August. Model spread remains modest, reflecting limited synoptic forcing and typical late-summer stability, so traders price the narrow range as the most probable resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Moscow on August 9?
Highest temperature in Moscow on August 9?
22°C 44%
23°C 34%
21°C 11%
24°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 9, 2026
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
2%
21°C
11%
22°C
44%
23°C
34%
24°C
6%
25°C
2%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C or higher
<1%
22°C 44%
23°C 34%
21°C 11%
24°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 9, 2026
19°C or below
$319 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$386 Vol.
2%
21°C
$846 Vol.
11%
22°C
$1,774 Vol.
44%
23°C
$2,917 Vol.
34%
24°C
$882 Vol.
6%
25°C
$368 Vol.
2%
26°C
$167 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$323 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$309 Vol.
<1%
29°C or higher
$474 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from major meteorological centers converge on a Moscow daytime maximum of 22–23 °C for August 9, driving the market’s tight 41.5 % / 34 % split between those outcomes. Subtle differences in predicted cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and weak frontal passage determine whether the peak reaches the higher end of the envelope, while light southerly flow keeps the reading well within climatological norms for early August. Model spread remains modest, reflecting limited synoptic forcing and typical late-summer stability, so traders price the narrow range as the most probable resolution window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 7, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$8,576End Date
Aug 9, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from major meteorological centers converge on a Moscow daytime maximum of 22–23 °C for August 9, driving the market’s tight 41.5 % / 34 % split between those outcomes. Subtle differences in predicted cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and weak frontal passage determine whether the peak reaches the higher end of the envelope, while light southerly flow keeps the reading well within climatological norms for early August. Model spread remains modest, reflecting limited synoptic forcing and typical late-summer stability, so traders price the narrow range as the most probable resolution window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$8,576End Date
Aug 9, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from major meteorological centers converge on a Moscow daytime maximum of 22–23 °C for August 9, driving the market’s tight 41.5 % / 34 % split between those outcomes. Subtle differences in predicted cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and weak frontal passage determine whether the peak reaches the higher end of the envelope, while light southerly flow keeps the reading well within climatological norms for early August. Model spread remains modest, reflecting limited synoptic forcing and typical late-summer stability, so traders price the narrow range as the most probable resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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