Recent numerical weather prediction ensembles from the ECMWF and GFS models converge on a daytime maximum of 27–28°C for Istanbul on August 9, 2026, under persistent anticyclonic conditions with light northerly flow and minimal cloud cover across the Marmara region. This aligns with long-term August climatology showing mean highs of 27–29°C, where stable high pressure promotes modest warm advection without significant moisture or instability for further warming. The resulting market-implied probabilities—led by 27°C at 53.5%—reflect trader consensus on these stable patterns, with limited upside risk from model spread or unexpected sea-breeze moderation. Final resolution depends on official Turkish State Meteorological Service observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on August 9?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on August 9?
27°C 54%
28°C 25%
26°C 17%
25°C 4%
NEW
$12,821 Vol.
NEW
$12,821 Vol.
Aug 9, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
4%
26°C
17%
27°C
54%
28°C
25%
29°C
3%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
27°C 54%
28°C 25%
26°C 17%
25°C 4%
NEW
$12,821 Vol.
NEW
$12,821 Vol.
Aug 9, 2026
23°C or below
$1,323 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$677 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$1,435 Vol.
4%
26°C
$1,374 Vol.
17%
27°C
$4,194 Vol.
54%
28°C
$1,125 Vol.
25%
29°C
$446 Vol.
3%
30°C
$392 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$480 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$1,103 Vol.
<1%
33°C or higher
$272 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction ensembles from the ECMWF and GFS models converge on a daytime maximum of 27–28°C for Istanbul on August 9, 2026, under persistent anticyclonic conditions with light northerly flow and minimal cloud cover across the Marmara region. This aligns with long-term August climatology showing mean highs of 27–29°C, where stable high pressure promotes modest warm advection without significant moisture or instability for further warming. The resulting market-implied probabilities—led by 27°C at 53.5%—reflect trader consensus on these stable patterns, with limited upside risk from model spread or unexpected sea-breeze moderation. Final resolution depends on official Turkish State Meteorological Service observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 7, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$12,821End Date
Aug 9, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction ensembles from the ECMWF and GFS models converge on a daytime maximum of 27–28°C for Istanbul on August 9, 2026, under persistent anticyclonic conditions with light northerly flow and minimal cloud cover across the Marmara region. This aligns with long-term August climatology showing mean highs of 27–29°C, where stable high pressure promotes modest warm advection without significant moisture or instability for further warming. The resulting market-implied probabilities—led by 27°C at 53.5%—reflect trader consensus on these stable patterns, with limited upside risk from model spread or unexpected sea-breeze moderation. Final resolution depends on official Turkish State Meteorological Service observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$12,821End Date
Aug 9, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent numerical weather prediction ensembles from the ECMWF and GFS models converge on a daytime maximum of 27–28°C for Istanbul on August 9, 2026, under persistent anticyclonic conditions with light northerly flow and minimal cloud cover across the Marmara region. This aligns with long-term August climatology showing mean highs of 27–29°C, where stable high pressure promotes modest warm advection without significant moisture or instability for further warming. The resulting market-implied probabilities—led by 27°C at 53.5%—reflect trader consensus on these stable patterns, with limited upside risk from model spread or unexpected sea-breeze moderation. Final resolution depends on official Turkish State Meteorological Service observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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