Recent Met Office guidance and supporting model runs project a sunny day with a maximum near 26°C in London on August 11, yet ensemble spread keeps implied probabilities tightly balanced between 24°C and 25°C. Key differentiating factors include the precise timing of peak insolation, boundary-layer mixing, and any late onshore breeze that could cap readings 1–2°C below guidance. Historical August climatology centers near 22°C, so current warmth stems from high pressure and southerly flow; traders weigh these variables against potential model bias seen in prior warm spells. Updated short-range runs and observational adjustments tomorrow morning will likely sharpen resolution before the market closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in London on August 11?
Highest temperature in London on August 11?
25°C 46%
24°C 39%
26°C 12%
23°C 5%
NEW
$26,521 Vol.
NEW
$26,521 Vol.
Aug 11, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
5%
24°C
39%
25°C
46%
26°C
12%
27°C
2%
28°C
2%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
25°C 46%
24°C 39%
26°C 12%
23°C 5%
NEW
$26,521 Vol.
NEW
$26,521 Vol.
Aug 11, 2026
20°C or below
$4,428 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$743 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$1,450 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$2,690 Vol.
5%
24°C
$4,076 Vol.
39%
25°C
$3,677 Vol.
46%
26°C
$3,508 Vol.
12%
27°C
$2,097 Vol.
2%
28°C
$1,969 Vol.
2%
29°C
$1,267 Vol.
<1%
30°C or higher
$617 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Met Office guidance and supporting model runs project a sunny day with a maximum near 26°C in London on August 11, yet ensemble spread keeps implied probabilities tightly balanced between 24°C and 25°C. Key differentiating factors include the precise timing of peak insolation, boundary-layer mixing, and any late onshore breeze that could cap readings 1–2°C below guidance. Historical August climatology centers near 22°C, so current warmth stems from high pressure and southerly flow; traders weigh these variables against potential model bias seen in prior warm spells. Updated short-range runs and observational adjustments tomorrow morning will likely sharpen resolution before the market closes.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 9, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$26,521End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Met Office guidance and supporting model runs project a sunny day with a maximum near 26°C in London on August 11, yet ensemble spread keeps implied probabilities tightly balanced between 24°C and 25°C. Key differentiating factors include the precise timing of peak insolation, boundary-layer mixing, and any late onshore breeze that could cap readings 1–2°C below guidance. Historical August climatology centers near 22°C, so current warmth stems from high pressure and southerly flow; traders weigh these variables against potential model bias seen in prior warm spells. Updated short-range runs and observational adjustments tomorrow morning will likely sharpen resolution before the market closes.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$26,521End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Met Office guidance and supporting model runs project a sunny day with a maximum near 26°C in London on August 11, yet ensemble spread keeps implied probabilities tightly balanced between 24°C and 25°C. Key differentiating factors include the precise timing of peak insolation, boundary-layer mixing, and any late onshore breeze that could cap readings 1–2°C below guidance. Historical August climatology centers near 22°C, so current warmth stems from high pressure and southerly flow; traders weigh these variables against potential model bias seen in prior warm spells. Updated short-range runs and observational adjustments tomorrow morning will likely sharpen resolution before the market closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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