**Recent forecasts from the UK Met Office indicate a minimum temperature of 17°C for London on August 11, 2026, aligning with the market's leading 45.5% probability for that outcome.** A building high-pressure system has driven a warming trend, with daytime highs expected near 26–29°C and overnight lows moderated by mild southwesterly flow. This reduces radiative cooling compared to clearer, calmer conditions that could push minima toward 14–15°C. The close contest between 17°C (45.5%) and 16°C (36.5%) reflects minor ensemble spread in numerical weather prediction models. Key differentiating factors include variable cloud cover overnight—which traps heat and limits temperature drops—and subtle shifts in wind speed or humidity that alter the boundary layer. Historical August averages for London minima hover near 13–14°C, making the current milder outlook stand out and supporting the market's emphasis on 16–17°C. No major disruptive weather systems are imminent, keeping trader sentiment anchored to official guidance and the latest model runs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in London on August 11?
Lowest temperature in London on August 11?
17°C 46%
16°C 37%
15°C 13%
18°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 11, 2026
12°C or below
<1%
13°C
1%
14°C
2%
15°C
13%
16°C
37%
17°C
46%
18°C
7%
19°C
1%
20°C
1%
21°C
<1%
22°C or higher
<1%
17°C 46%
16°C 37%
15°C 13%
18°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 11, 2026
12°C or below
$41 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$38 Vol.
1%
14°C
$44 Vol.
2%
15°C
$153 Vol.
13%
16°C
$1,863 Vol.
37%
17°C
$1,662 Vol.
46%
18°C
$177 Vol.
7%
19°C
$94 Vol.
1%
20°C
$40 Vol.
1%
21°C
$61 Vol.
<1%
22°C or higher
$86 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecasts from the UK Met Office indicate a minimum temperature of 17°C for London on August 11, 2026, aligning with the market's leading 45.5% probability for that outcome.** A building high-pressure system has driven a warming trend, with daytime highs expected near 26–29°C and overnight lows moderated by mild southwesterly flow. This reduces radiative cooling compared to clearer, calmer conditions that could push minima toward 14–15°C.
The close contest between 17°C (45.5%) and 16°C (36.5%) reflects minor ensemble spread in numerical weather prediction models. Key differentiating factors include variable cloud cover overnight—which traps heat and limits temperature drops—and subtle shifts in wind speed or humidity that alter the boundary layer. Historical August averages for London minima hover near 13–14°C, making the current milder outlook stand out and supporting the market's emphasis on 16–17°C.
No major disruptive weather systems are imminent, keeping trader sentiment anchored to official guidance and the latest model runs.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 9, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$4,258End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecasts from the UK Met Office indicate a minimum temperature of 17°C for London on August 11, 2026, aligning with the market's leading 45.5% probability for that outcome.** A building high-pressure system has driven a warming trend, with daytime highs expected near 26–29°C and overnight lows moderated by mild southwesterly flow. This reduces radiative cooling compared to clearer, calmer conditions that could push minima toward 14–15°C.
The close contest between 17°C (45.5%) and 16°C (36.5%) reflects minor ensemble spread in numerical weather prediction models. Key differentiating factors include variable cloud cover overnight—which traps heat and limits temperature drops—and subtle shifts in wind speed or humidity that alter the boundary layer. Historical August averages for London minima hover near 13–14°C, making the current milder outlook stand out and supporting the market's emphasis on 16–17°C.
No major disruptive weather systems are imminent, keeping trader sentiment anchored to official guidance and the latest model runs.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,258End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent forecasts from the UK Met Office indicate a minimum temperature of 17°C for London on August 11, 2026, aligning with the market's leading 45.5% probability for that outcome.** A building high-pressure system has driven a warming trend, with daytime highs expected near 26–29°C and overnight lows moderated by mild southwesterly flow. This reduces radiative cooling compared to clearer, calmer conditions that could push minima toward 14–15°C. The close contest between 17°C (45.5%) and 16°C (36.5%) reflects minor ensemble spread in numerical weather prediction models. Key differentiating factors include variable cloud cover overnight—which traps heat and limits temperature drops—and subtle shifts in wind speed or humidity that alter the boundary layer. Historical August averages for London minima hover near 13–14°C, making the current milder outlook stand out and supporting the market's emphasis on 16–17°C. No major disruptive weather systems are imminent, keeping trader sentiment anchored to official guidance and the latest model runs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions