Latest forecast models from European agencies including the KNMI and ECMWF indicate a daily maximum near 22–23°C in Amsterdam on August 11 under partly cloudy skies, moderate northeasterly winds, and limited daytime heating after recent warmer conditions. This consensus, with minor spreads across runs, underpins the tight market-implied odds favoring those two outcomes while assigning lower probability to 21°C. Historical August averages near 21–22°C provide context, yet current steering patterns and subsidence favor slightly above-normal values. Official KNMI observations tomorrow evening will resolve the market, with any last-minute model shifts from updated soundings potentially adjusting trader positions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Amsterdam on August 11?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on August 11?
22°C 46%
23°C 38%
21°C 15%
24°C 6%
NEW
$12,329 Vol.
NEW
$12,329 Vol.
Aug 11, 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
1%
20°C
1%
21°C
15%
22°C
46%
23°C
38%
24°C
6%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
<1%
22°C 46%
23°C 38%
21°C 15%
24°C 6%
NEW
$12,329 Vol.
NEW
$12,329 Vol.
Aug 11, 2026
18°C or below
$566 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$559 Vol.
1%
20°C
$564 Vol.
1%
21°C
$1,804 Vol.
15%
22°C
$1,401 Vol.
46%
23°C
$3,654 Vol.
38%
24°C
$875 Vol.
6%
25°C
$481 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$641 Vol.
1%
27°C
$957 Vol.
<1%
28°C or higher
$826 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest forecast models from European agencies including the KNMI and ECMWF indicate a daily maximum near 22–23°C in Amsterdam on August 11 under partly cloudy skies, moderate northeasterly winds, and limited daytime heating after recent warmer conditions. This consensus, with minor spreads across runs, underpins the tight market-implied odds favoring those two outcomes while assigning lower probability to 21°C. Historical August averages near 21–22°C provide context, yet current steering patterns and subsidence favor slightly above-normal values. Official KNMI observations tomorrow evening will resolve the market, with any last-minute model shifts from updated soundings potentially adjusting trader positions.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 9, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volume
$12,329End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest forecast models from European agencies including the KNMI and ECMWF indicate a daily maximum near 22–23°C in Amsterdam on August 11 under partly cloudy skies, moderate northeasterly winds, and limited daytime heating after recent warmer conditions. This consensus, with minor spreads across runs, underpins the tight market-implied odds favoring those two outcomes while assigning lower probability to 21°C. Historical August averages near 21–22°C provide context, yet current steering patterns and subsidence favor slightly above-normal values. Official KNMI observations tomorrow evening will resolve the market, with any last-minute model shifts from updated soundings potentially adjusting trader positions.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$12,329End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest forecast models from European agencies including the KNMI and ECMWF indicate a daily maximum near 22–23°C in Amsterdam on August 11 under partly cloudy skies, moderate northeasterly winds, and limited daytime heating after recent warmer conditions. This consensus, with minor spreads across runs, underpins the tight market-implied odds favoring those two outcomes while assigning lower probability to 21°C. Historical August averages near 21–22°C provide context, yet current steering patterns and subsidence favor slightly above-normal values. Official KNMI observations tomorrow evening will resolve the market, with any last-minute model shifts from updated soundings potentially adjusting trader positions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions