Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) position Munich's August 11 maximum near 30–31°C, with model consensus showing modest daytime heating under partly cloudy skies and light winds. This aligns with the market's leading outcomes at 31°C (52%) and 30°C (36.5%), as traders weigh the narrow spread typical of late-summer conditions in southern Germany. Recent regional cooling after early August heat has narrowed the upper tail, limiting probabilities above 32°C to under 10% combined, while stable high-pressure influence keeps sub-29°C outcomes below 6%. Updated model runs and local observations over the next 24 hours will further refine these implied probabilities ahead of official station resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Munich on August 11?
Highest temperature in Munich on August 11?
31°C 52%
30°C 37%
32°C 9%
29°C 6%
NEW
$15,836 Vol.
NEW
$15,836 Vol.
Aug 11, 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
6%
30°C
37%
31°C
52%
32°C
9%
33°C
2%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C or higher
<1%
31°C 52%
30°C 37%
32°C 9%
29°C 6%
NEW
$15,836 Vol.
NEW
$15,836 Vol.
Aug 11, 2026
27°C or below
$862 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$797 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$1,629 Vol.
6%
30°C
$4,224 Vol.
37%
31°C
$2,959 Vol.
52%
32°C
$2,226 Vol.
9%
33°C
$891 Vol.
2%
34°C
$815 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$646 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$459 Vol.
<1%
37°C or higher
$328 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) position Munich's August 11 maximum near 30–31°C, with model consensus showing modest daytime heating under partly cloudy skies and light winds. This aligns with the market's leading outcomes at 31°C (52%) and 30°C (36.5%), as traders weigh the narrow spread typical of late-summer conditions in southern Germany. Recent regional cooling after early August heat has narrowed the upper tail, limiting probabilities above 32°C to under 10% combined, while stable high-pressure influence keeps sub-29°C outcomes below 6%. Updated model runs and local observations over the next 24 hours will further refine these implied probabilities ahead of official station resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 9, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$15,836End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) position Munich's August 11 maximum near 30–31°C, with model consensus showing modest daytime heating under partly cloudy skies and light winds. This aligns with the market's leading outcomes at 31°C (52%) and 30°C (36.5%), as traders weigh the narrow spread typical of late-summer conditions in southern Germany. Recent regional cooling after early August heat has narrowed the upper tail, limiting probabilities above 32°C to under 10% combined, while stable high-pressure influence keeps sub-29°C outcomes below 6%. Updated model runs and local observations over the next 24 hours will further refine these implied probabilities ahead of official station resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$15,836End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) position Munich's August 11 maximum near 30–31°C, with model consensus showing modest daytime heating under partly cloudy skies and light winds. This aligns with the market's leading outcomes at 31°C (52%) and 30°C (36.5%), as traders weigh the narrow spread typical of late-summer conditions in southern Germany. Recent regional cooling after early August heat has narrowed the upper tail, limiting probabilities above 32°C to under 10% combined, while stable high-pressure influence keeps sub-29°C outcomes below 6%. Updated model runs and local observations over the next 24 hours will further refine these implied probabilities ahead of official station resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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