Current forecasts from meteorological agencies indicate a peak temperature near 39°C in Madrid on August 13 under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light northeasterly winds that favor strong daytime heating without significant cloud cover or advection of cooler air. This setup aligns with the market's tight clustering around 39°C (46.5% implied probability) and 40°C (40%), reflecting trader assessment of model consensus amid typical August climatology where highs average 32–34°C but can exceed 38°C during stable anticyclonic conditions. Minor spread between outcomes stems from small differences in projected maximums tied to exact wind speeds and boundary-layer mixing; updated model runs and official observations from AEMET over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on August 13?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 13?
39°C 47%
40°C 40%
38°C 9%
41°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 13, 2026
35°C or below
<1%
36°C
1%
37°C
2%
38°C
9%
39°C
47%
40°C
40%
41°C
7%
42°C
2%
43°C
1%
44°C
<1%
45°C or higher
<1%
39°C 47%
40°C 40%
38°C 9%
41°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 13, 2026
35°C or below
$186 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$222 Vol.
1%
37°C
$332 Vol.
2%
38°C
$368 Vol.
9%
39°C
$673 Vol.
47%
40°C
$1,657 Vol.
40%
41°C
$467 Vol.
7%
42°C
$260 Vol.
2%
43°C
$163 Vol.
1%
44°C
$227 Vol.
<1%
45°C or higher
$115 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from meteorological agencies indicate a peak temperature near 39°C in Madrid on August 13 under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light northeasterly winds that favor strong daytime heating without significant cloud cover or advection of cooler air. This setup aligns with the market's tight clustering around 39°C (46.5% implied probability) and 40°C (40%), reflecting trader assessment of model consensus amid typical August climatology where highs average 32–34°C but can exceed 38°C during stable anticyclonic conditions. Minor spread between outcomes stems from small differences in projected maximums tied to exact wind speeds and boundary-layer mixing; updated model runs and official observations from AEMET over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Volume
$4,671End Date
Aug 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from meteorological agencies indicate a peak temperature near 39°C in Madrid on August 13 under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light northeasterly winds that favor strong daytime heating without significant cloud cover or advection of cooler air. This setup aligns with the market's tight clustering around 39°C (46.5% implied probability) and 40°C (40%), reflecting trader assessment of model consensus amid typical August climatology where highs average 32–34°C but can exceed 38°C during stable anticyclonic conditions. Minor spread between outcomes stems from small differences in projected maximums tied to exact wind speeds and boundary-layer mixing; updated model runs and official observations from AEMET over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,671End Date
Aug 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from meteorological agencies indicate a peak temperature near 39°C in Madrid on August 13 under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light northeasterly winds that favor strong daytime heating without significant cloud cover or advection of cooler air. This setup aligns with the market's tight clustering around 39°C (46.5% implied probability) and 40°C (40%), reflecting trader assessment of model consensus amid typical August climatology where highs average 32–34°C but can exceed 38°C during stable anticyclonic conditions. Minor spread between outcomes stems from small differences in projected maximums tied to exact wind speeds and boundary-layer mixing; updated model runs and official observations from AEMET over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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