Recent ensemble forecasts from the Met Office and ECMWF highlight building high pressure over southern England, favoring clear skies and strong daytime heating that supports market-implied odds favoring a 35–36 °C peak for London on August 13. Model spreads reflect typical summer variability in boundary-layer mixing and urban heat-island amplification, keeping 37 °C plausible if insolation maximizes. Historical August maxima near 34 °C provide climatological context, while the absence of significant Atlantic fronts in the latest runs reduces the chance of lower outcomes. Traders are monitoring the next 12–24 hour model updates and official Met Office guidance for any shifts in 850 hPa temperatures or cloud cover that could alter resolution thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in London on August 13?
Highest temperature in London on August 13?
36°C 38%
35°C 34%
37°C 15%
34°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 13, 2026
30°C or below
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
2%
33°C
3%
34°C
11%
35°C
34%
36°C
38%
37°C
15%
38°C
3%
39°C
2%
40°C or higher
<1%
36°C 38%
35°C 34%
37°C 15%
34°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 13, 2026
30°C or below
$2,702 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$734 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$193 Vol.
2%
33°C
$567 Vol.
3%
34°C
$485 Vol.
11%
35°C
$1,677 Vol.
34%
36°C
$1,089 Vol.
38%
37°C
$545 Vol.
15%
38°C
$714 Vol.
3%
39°C
$133 Vol.
2%
40°C or higher
$72 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from the Met Office and ECMWF highlight building high pressure over southern England, favoring clear skies and strong daytime heating that supports market-implied odds favoring a 35–36 °C peak for London on August 13. Model spreads reflect typical summer variability in boundary-layer mixing and urban heat-island amplification, keeping 37 °C plausible if insolation maximizes. Historical August maxima near 34 °C provide climatological context, while the absence of significant Atlantic fronts in the latest runs reduces the chance of lower outcomes. Traders are monitoring the next 12–24 hour model updates and official Met Office guidance for any shifts in 850 hPa temperatures or cloud cover that could alter resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 1:02 AM ET
Volume
$8,910End Date
Aug 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 1:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from the Met Office and ECMWF highlight building high pressure over southern England, favoring clear skies and strong daytime heating that supports market-implied odds favoring a 35–36 °C peak for London on August 13. Model spreads reflect typical summer variability in boundary-layer mixing and urban heat-island amplification, keeping 37 °C plausible if insolation maximizes. Historical August maxima near 34 °C provide climatological context, while the absence of significant Atlantic fronts in the latest runs reduces the chance of lower outcomes. Traders are monitoring the next 12–24 hour model updates and official Met Office guidance for any shifts in 850 hPa temperatures or cloud cover that could alter resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$8,910End Date
Aug 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 1:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from the Met Office and ECMWF highlight building high pressure over southern England, favoring clear skies and strong daytime heating that supports market-implied odds favoring a 35–36 °C peak for London on August 13. Model spreads reflect typical summer variability in boundary-layer mixing and urban heat-island amplification, keeping 37 °C plausible if insolation maximizes. Historical August maxima near 34 °C provide climatological context, while the absence of significant Atlantic fronts in the latest runs reduces the chance of lower outcomes. Traders are monitoring the next 12–24 hour model updates and official Met Office guidance for any shifts in 850 hPa temperatures or cloud cover that could alter resolution thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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