Stable high-pressure conditions dominate Madrid on August 11, promoting clear skies, strong solar heating, and light winds that limit mixing and favor a daytime maximum near 37°C according to official guidance and recent model consensus. This aligns with trader positioning, where 37°C holds 66.5% implied probability ahead of 38°C at 17.5%. August climatology for central Spain shows average highs around 33°C, but the warmer 2026 summer pattern and persistent anticyclonic subsidence have supported elevated temperatures, with recent days reaching 37–39°C. Official AEMET forecasts indicate 34°C in midday and afternoon periods, while other models range 35–37°C, reflecting typical uncertainty in boundary-layer processes and exact insolation. No major shifts in steering patterns or moisture are expected before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on August 11?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 11?
37°C 67%
38°C 14%
36°C 12%
35°C 1.9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 11, 2026
32°C or below
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
2%
36°C
12%
37°C
67%
38°C
14%
39°C
2%
40°C
<1%
41°C
<1%
42°C or higher
<1%
37°C 67%
38°C 14%
36°C 12%
35°C 1.9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 11, 2026
32°C or below
$1,025 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$281 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$255 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$239 Vol.
2%
36°C
$1,335 Vol.
12%
37°C
$1,631 Vol.
67%
38°C
$1,317 Vol.
14%
39°C
$382 Vol.
2%
40°C
$345 Vol.
<1%
41°C
$148 Vol.
<1%
42°C or higher
$305 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Stable high-pressure conditions dominate Madrid on August 11, promoting clear skies, strong solar heating, and light winds that limit mixing and favor a daytime maximum near 37°C according to official guidance and recent model consensus. This aligns with trader positioning, where 37°C holds 66.5% implied probability ahead of 38°C at 17.5%. August climatology for central Spain shows average highs around 33°C, but the warmer 2026 summer pattern and persistent anticyclonic subsidence have supported elevated temperatures, with recent days reaching 37–39°C. Official AEMET forecasts indicate 34°C in midday and afternoon periods, while other models range 35–37°C, reflecting typical uncertainty in boundary-layer processes and exact insolation. No major shifts in steering patterns or moisture are expected before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 9, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$7,264End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Stable high-pressure conditions dominate Madrid on August 11, promoting clear skies, strong solar heating, and light winds that limit mixing and favor a daytime maximum near 37°C according to official guidance and recent model consensus. This aligns with trader positioning, where 37°C holds 66.5% implied probability ahead of 38°C at 17.5%. August climatology for central Spain shows average highs around 33°C, but the warmer 2026 summer pattern and persistent anticyclonic subsidence have supported elevated temperatures, with recent days reaching 37–39°C. Official AEMET forecasts indicate 34°C in midday and afternoon periods, while other models range 35–37°C, reflecting typical uncertainty in boundary-layer processes and exact insolation. No major shifts in steering patterns or moisture are expected before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$7,264End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Stable high-pressure conditions dominate Madrid on August 11, promoting clear skies, strong solar heating, and light winds that limit mixing and favor a daytime maximum near 37°C according to official guidance and recent model consensus. This aligns with trader positioning, where 37°C holds 66.5% implied probability ahead of 38°C at 17.5%. August climatology for central Spain shows average highs around 33°C, but the warmer 2026 summer pattern and persistent anticyclonic subsidence have supported elevated temperatures, with recent days reaching 37–39°C. Official AEMET forecasts indicate 34°C in midday and afternoon periods, while other models range 35–37°C, reflecting typical uncertainty in boundary-layer processes and exact insolation. No major shifts in steering patterns or moisture are expected before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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