Recent extreme heat, including Hong Kong Observatory's record 36.8°C peak on August 9 under a persistent subtropical high, has shaped trader positioning for August 12, with 34°C leading at 33% implied probability amid expectations of modest cooling. Key variables include model consensus on daytime maxima, potential for scattered thunderstorms or increased cloud cover that could limit insolation and cap peaks near 32–34°C, versus sustained clear conditions favoring 35°C or higher. Seasonal outlooks from the Hong Kong Observatory indicate normal-to-above-normal August temperatures driven by long-term warming trends, though short-term steering patterns and humidity levels introduce divergence across ensemble forecasts. The spread across outcomes near the historical August mean of ~31°C underscores genuine uncertainty ahead of updated guidance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Hong Kong on August 12?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 12?
34°C 34%
33°C 29%
32°C 21%
35°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 12, 2026
28°C or below
2%
29°C
2%
30°C
1%
31°C
10%
32°C
21%
33°C
29%
34°C
34%
35°C
14%
36°C
6%
37°C
5%
38°C or higher
2%
34°C 34%
33°C 29%
32°C 21%
35°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 12, 2026
28°C or below
$12 Vol.
2%
29°C
$12 Vol.
2%
30°C
$12 Vol.
1%
31°C
$0 Vol.
10%
32°C
$0 Vol.
21%
33°C
$277 Vol.
29%
34°C
$38 Vol.
34%
35°C
$0 Vol.
14%
36°C
$0 Vol.
6%
37°C
$22 Vol.
5%
38°C or higher
$12 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent extreme heat, including Hong Kong Observatory's record 36.8°C peak on August 9 under a persistent subtropical high, has shaped trader positioning for August 12, with 34°C leading at 33% implied probability amid expectations of modest cooling. Key variables include model consensus on daytime maxima, potential for scattered thunderstorms or increased cloud cover that could limit insolation and cap peaks near 32–34°C, versus sustained clear conditions favoring 35°C or higher. Seasonal outlooks from the Hong Kong Observatory indicate normal-to-above-normal August temperatures driven by long-term warming trends, though short-term steering patterns and humidity levels introduce divergence across ensemble forecasts. The spread across outcomes near the historical August mean of ~31°C underscores genuine uncertainty ahead of updated guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Aug 10, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$385End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent extreme heat, including Hong Kong Observatory's record 36.8°C peak on August 9 under a persistent subtropical high, has shaped trader positioning for August 12, with 34°C leading at 33% implied probability amid expectations of modest cooling. Key variables include model consensus on daytime maxima, potential for scattered thunderstorms or increased cloud cover that could limit insolation and cap peaks near 32–34°C, versus sustained clear conditions favoring 35°C or higher. Seasonal outlooks from the Hong Kong Observatory indicate normal-to-above-normal August temperatures driven by long-term warming trends, though short-term steering patterns and humidity levels introduce divergence across ensemble forecasts. The spread across outcomes near the historical August mean of ~31°C underscores genuine uncertainty ahead of updated guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$385End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent extreme heat, including Hong Kong Observatory's record 36.8°C peak on August 9 under a persistent subtropical high, has shaped trader positioning for August 12, with 34°C leading at 33% implied probability amid expectations of modest cooling. Key variables include model consensus on daytime maxima, potential for scattered thunderstorms or increased cloud cover that could limit insolation and cap peaks near 32–34°C, versus sustained clear conditions favoring 35°C or higher. Seasonal outlooks from the Hong Kong Observatory indicate normal-to-above-normal August temperatures driven by long-term warming trends, though short-term steering patterns and humidity levels introduce divergence across ensemble forecasts. The spread across outcomes near the historical August mean of ~31°C underscores genuine uncertainty ahead of updated guidance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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