Recent short-range forecast guidance from regional meteorological models positions Istanbul under stable high-pressure conditions, supporting the market's strong implied probabilities for a 27°C or 28°C daily maximum on August 13. Typical late-summer patterns in the region feature moderating sea breezes from the Bosphorus and Black Sea, keeping daytime highs near the long-term August average of 28°C rather than allowing significant warming or cooling. Current consensus across agency guidance shows maxima clustered in the 27–29°C range with low precipitation risk and consistent wind patterns, aligning with trader emphasis on these two outcomes over higher or lower thresholds. Minor model variations in steering flows could still adjust the exact peak before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on August 13?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on August 13?
27°C 52%
28°C 40%
26°C 6%
29°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 13, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
3%
26°C
6%
27°C
52%
28°C
40%
29°C
6%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
27°C 52%
28°C 40%
26°C 6%
29°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 13, 2026
23°C or below
$430 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$156 Vol.
1%
25°C
$293 Vol.
3%
26°C
$301 Vol.
6%
27°C
$1,951 Vol.
52%
28°C
$1,234 Vol.
40%
29°C
$209 Vol.
6%
30°C
$113 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$136 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$697 Vol.
<1%
33°C or higher
$164 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecast guidance from regional meteorological models positions Istanbul under stable high-pressure conditions, supporting the market's strong implied probabilities for a 27°C or 28°C daily maximum on August 13. Typical late-summer patterns in the region feature moderating sea breezes from the Bosphorus and Black Sea, keeping daytime highs near the long-term August average of 28°C rather than allowing significant warming or cooling. Current consensus across agency guidance shows maxima clustered in the 27–29°C range with low precipitation risk and consistent wind patterns, aligning with trader emphasis on these two outcomes over higher or lower thresholds. Minor model variations in steering flows could still adjust the exact peak before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Volume
$5,685End Date
Aug 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecast guidance from regional meteorological models positions Istanbul under stable high-pressure conditions, supporting the market's strong implied probabilities for a 27°C or 28°C daily maximum on August 13. Typical late-summer patterns in the region feature moderating sea breezes from the Bosphorus and Black Sea, keeping daytime highs near the long-term August average of 28°C rather than allowing significant warming or cooling. Current consensus across agency guidance shows maxima clustered in the 27–29°C range with low precipitation risk and consistent wind patterns, aligning with trader emphasis on these two outcomes over higher or lower thresholds. Minor model variations in steering flows could still adjust the exact peak before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5,685End Date
Aug 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent short-range forecast guidance from regional meteorological models positions Istanbul under stable high-pressure conditions, supporting the market's strong implied probabilities for a 27°C or 28°C daily maximum on August 13. Typical late-summer patterns in the region feature moderating sea breezes from the Bosphorus and Black Sea, keeping daytime highs near the long-term August average of 28°C rather than allowing significant warming or cooling. Current consensus across agency guidance shows maxima clustered in the 27–29°C range with low precipitation risk and consistent wind patterns, aligning with trader emphasis on these two outcomes over higher or lower thresholds. Minor model variations in steering flows could still adjust the exact peak before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions