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Climate & Science·Europe

When will the Rhine River return to normal levels?

icon for When will the Rhine River return to normal levels?
Climate & Science·Europe

When will the Rhine River return to normal levels?

September 15 - 30, 2026 48%

Before September 1, 2026 47%

September 1 - 14, 2026 47%

Does not return by November 1, 2026 46%

Polymarket
NEW

September 15 - 30, 2026 48%

Before September 1, 2026 47%

September 1 - 14, 2026 47%

Does not return by November 1, 2026 46%

Polymarket
NEW

Before September 1, 2026

$0 Vol.

47%

September 1 - 14, 2026

$0 Vol.

47%

September 15 - 30, 2026

$0 Vol.

48%

October 1 - 31, 2026

$0 Vol.

45%

Does not return by November 1, 2026

$0 Vol.

46%

This market resolves based on when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline. A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water navigation reference above which full navigation of the Rhine is possible, and defines "normal levels" for this market. "Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 77 centimeters is recorded at the Kaub gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution. The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period. The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 77 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100). If PegelOnline is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing European drought and multiple heatwaves have driven the Rhine to near-record lows at key gauges like Kaub, with minimal Alpine snowmelt and below-normal rainfall through early August 2026 sustaining critically shallow depths that disrupt commercial shipping. Trader consensus around 50% odds across September and October intervals reflects uncertainty in precipitation forecasts and seasonal recovery patterns, as autumn rains could accelerate normalization while persistent dry conditions or elevated temperatures would delay it. Recent modest rises after localized showers have not shifted the broader outlook enough to separate probabilities, leaving the market balanced on near-term hydrological developments.

This market resolves based on when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline. A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water navigation reference above which full navigation of the Rhine is possible, and defines "normal levels" for this market.

"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 77 centimeters is recorded at the Kaub gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.

The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.

The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 77 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100). If PegelOnline is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$0
End Date
Nov 1, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 11:08 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market resolves based on when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline. A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water navigation reference above which full navigation of the Rhine is possible, and defines "normal levels" for this market. "Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 77 centimeters is recorded at the Kaub gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution. The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period. The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 77 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100). If PegelOnline is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
This market resolves based on when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline. A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water navigation reference above which full navigation of the Rhine is possible, and defines "normal levels" for this market. "Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 77 centimeters is recorded at the Kaub gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution. The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period. The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 77 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100). If PegelOnline is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing European drought and multiple heatwaves have driven the Rhine to near-record lows at key gauges like Kaub, with minimal Alpine snowmelt and below-normal rainfall through early August 2026 sustaining critically shallow depths that disrupt commercial shipping. Trader consensus around 50% odds across September and October intervals reflects uncertainty in precipitation forecasts and seasonal recovery patterns, as autumn rains could accelerate normalization while persistent dry conditions or elevated temperatures would delay it. Recent modest rises after localized showers have not shifted the broader outlook enough to separate probabilities, leaving the market balanced on near-term hydrological developments.

This market resolves based on when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline. A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water navigation reference above which full navigation of the Rhine is possible, and defines "normal levels" for this market.

"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 77 centimeters is recorded at the Kaub gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.

The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.

The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 77 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100). If PegelOnline is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$0
End Date
Nov 1, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 11:08 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market resolves based on when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline. A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water navigation reference above which full navigation of the Rhine is possible, and defines "normal levels" for this market. "Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 77 centimeters is recorded at the Kaub gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution. The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period. The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 77 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100). If PegelOnline is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"When will the Rhine River return to normal levels?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "September 15 - 30, 2026" at 48%, followed by "Before September 1, 2026" at 47%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 48¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 48% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"When will the Rhine River return to normal levels?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 11, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "When will the Rhine River return to normal levels?," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "When will the Rhine River return to normal levels?" is "September 15 - 30, 2026" at 48%, meaning the market assigns a 48% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Before September 1, 2026" at 47%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "When will the Rhine River return to normal levels?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.