Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for Tokyo on August 13 emphasize maximum temperatures near 28°C amid variable cloud cover and scattered showers, driving the 33.5% market-implied odds for that outcome. Seasonal outlooks indicate above-normal warmth from an enhanced Pacific High, yet short-term model runs diverge on precipitation timing and intensity, which can suppress afternoon peaks by several degrees. Historical August baselines average 31–32°C, but current patterns favor moderation around the 27–29°C range reflected in the spread of probabilities. Traders are monitoring the next JMA update and refined ensemble guidance for shifts in land-sea breeze or frontal activity that could tip the daily high.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 13?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 13?
28°C 33%
29°C 23%
27°C 21%
30°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 13, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
6%
27°C
21%
28°C
33%
29°C
23%
30°C
9%
31°C
4%
32°C
2%
33°C or higher
1%
28°C 33%
29°C 23%
27°C 21%
30°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 13, 2026
23°C or below
$632 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$172 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$127 Vol.
1%
26°C
$251 Vol.
6%
27°C
$856 Vol.
21%
28°C
$1,507 Vol.
33%
29°C
$459 Vol.
23%
30°C
$313 Vol.
9%
31°C
$476 Vol.
4%
32°C
$381 Vol.
2%
33°C or higher
$1,480 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for Tokyo on August 13 emphasize maximum temperatures near 28°C amid variable cloud cover and scattered showers, driving the 33.5% market-implied odds for that outcome. Seasonal outlooks indicate above-normal warmth from an enhanced Pacific High, yet short-term model runs diverge on precipitation timing and intensity, which can suppress afternoon peaks by several degrees. Historical August baselines average 31–32°C, but current patterns favor moderation around the 27–29°C range reflected in the spread of probabilities. Traders are monitoring the next JMA update and refined ensemble guidance for shifts in land-sea breeze or frontal activity that could tip the daily high.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$6,654End Date
Aug 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for Tokyo on August 13 emphasize maximum temperatures near 28°C amid variable cloud cover and scattered showers, driving the 33.5% market-implied odds for that outcome. Seasonal outlooks indicate above-normal warmth from an enhanced Pacific High, yet short-term model runs diverge on precipitation timing and intensity, which can suppress afternoon peaks by several degrees. Historical August baselines average 31–32°C, but current patterns favor moderation around the 27–29°C range reflected in the spread of probabilities. Traders are monitoring the next JMA update and refined ensemble guidance for shifts in land-sea breeze or frontal activity that could tip the daily high.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$6,654End Date
Aug 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for Tokyo on August 13 emphasize maximum temperatures near 28°C amid variable cloud cover and scattered showers, driving the 33.5% market-implied odds for that outcome. Seasonal outlooks indicate above-normal warmth from an enhanced Pacific High, yet short-term model runs diverge on precipitation timing and intensity, which can suppress afternoon peaks by several degrees. Historical August baselines average 31–32°C, but current patterns favor moderation around the 27–29°C range reflected in the spread of probabilities. Traders are monitoring the next JMA update and refined ensemble guidance for shifts in land-sea breeze or frontal activity that could tip the daily high.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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