Recent model consensus from sources like the China Meteorological Administration points to scattered thundery showers and increased cloud cover on August 15 moderating daytime heating in Shanghai, driving trader consensus toward 29–30°C as the most probable daily maximum with combined implied probability exceeding 50%. Persistent humidity near 80–90% and light easterly winds limit radiative warming while precipitation episodes further suppress peaks, consistent with recent days showing highs of 28–31°C amid similar patterns. Historical August averages near 32°C provide baseline context, yet short-term forecast uncertainty in storm timing and intensity keeps probabilities closely split between adjacent thresholds and creates trading opportunities ahead of updated runs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on August 15?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 15?
30°C 36%
29°C 33%
31°C 15%
28°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
25°C or below
1%
26°C
1%
27°C
3%
28°C
11%
29°C
33%
30°C
36%
31°C
15%
32°C
3%
33°C
1%
34°C
1%
35°C or higher
1%
30°C 36%
29°C 33%
31°C 15%
28°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
25°C or below
$22 Vol.
1%
26°C
$10 Vol.
1%
27°C
$51 Vol.
3%
28°C
$399 Vol.
11%
29°C
$443 Vol.
33%
30°C
$303 Vol.
36%
31°C
$626 Vol.
15%
32°C
$46 Vol.
3%
33°C
$67 Vol.
1%
34°C
$297 Vol.
1%
35°C or higher
$17 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources like the China Meteorological Administration points to scattered thundery showers and increased cloud cover on August 15 moderating daytime heating in Shanghai, driving trader consensus toward 29–30°C as the most probable daily maximum with combined implied probability exceeding 50%. Persistent humidity near 80–90% and light easterly winds limit radiative warming while precipitation episodes further suppress peaks, consistent with recent days showing highs of 28–31°C amid similar patterns. Historical August averages near 32°C provide baseline context, yet short-term forecast uncertainty in storm timing and intensity keeps probabilities closely split between adjacent thresholds and creates trading opportunities ahead of updated runs.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$2,282End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources like the China Meteorological Administration points to scattered thundery showers and increased cloud cover on August 15 moderating daytime heating in Shanghai, driving trader consensus toward 29–30°C as the most probable daily maximum with combined implied probability exceeding 50%. Persistent humidity near 80–90% and light easterly winds limit radiative warming while precipitation episodes further suppress peaks, consistent with recent days showing highs of 28–31°C amid similar patterns. Historical August averages near 32°C provide baseline context, yet short-term forecast uncertainty in storm timing and intensity keeps probabilities closely split between adjacent thresholds and creates trading opportunities ahead of updated runs.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,282End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from sources like the China Meteorological Administration points to scattered thundery showers and increased cloud cover on August 15 moderating daytime heating in Shanghai, driving trader consensus toward 29–30°C as the most probable daily maximum with combined implied probability exceeding 50%. Persistent humidity near 80–90% and light easterly winds limit radiative warming while precipitation episodes further suppress peaks, consistent with recent days showing highs of 28–31°C amid similar patterns. Historical August averages near 32°C provide baseline context, yet short-term forecast uncertainty in storm timing and intensity keeps probabilities closely split between adjacent thresholds and creates trading opportunities ahead of updated runs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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