Recent hot spell across southern England, with daytime peaks near 30–33°C and limited nocturnal cooling under high pressure, has positioned 19°C as the market leader for London’s August 15 minimum at 47% implied probability. Ensemble guidance from the Met Office and ECMWF shows a gradual easing of the heatwave, with light northerly flow and partial cloud cover expected to limit radiative cooling and keep overnight lows near 15–16°C; however, any increase in low-level moisture or reduced wind could raise minima toward 18–20°C. Traders appear to weight these variables and recent model runs favoring milder nights more heavily than the strict 15–16°C point forecasts, while lower-probability outcomes below 17°C reflect only a small chance of clearer, calmer conditions. Updated model cycles ahead of the weekend will be the key catalyst for further shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in London on August 15?
Lowest temperature in London on August 15?
20°C 37%
21°C 32%
19°C 18%
22°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
14°C or below
1%
15°C
5%
16°C
7%
17°C
6%
18°C
9%
19°C
18%
20°C
37%
21°C
32%
22°C
14%
23°C
11%
24°C or higher
3%
20°C 37%
21°C 32%
19°C 18%
22°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
14°C or below
$10 Vol.
1%
15°C
$10 Vol.
5%
16°C
$15 Vol.
7%
17°C
$13 Vol.
6%
18°C
$43 Vol.
9%
19°C
$0 Vol.
18%
20°C
$0 Vol.
37%
21°C
$5 Vol.
32%
22°C
$0 Vol.
14%
23°C
$40 Vol.
11%
24°C or higher
$5 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent hot spell across southern England, with daytime peaks near 30–33°C and limited nocturnal cooling under high pressure, has positioned 19°C as the market leader for London’s August 15 minimum at 47% implied probability. Ensemble guidance from the Met Office and ECMWF shows a gradual easing of the heatwave, with light northerly flow and partial cloud cover expected to limit radiative cooling and keep overnight lows near 15–16°C; however, any increase in low-level moisture or reduced wind could raise minima toward 18–20°C. Traders appear to weight these variables and recent model runs favoring milder nights more heavily than the strict 15–16°C point forecasts, while lower-probability outcomes below 17°C reflect only a small chance of clearer, calmer conditions. Updated model cycles ahead of the weekend will be the key catalyst for further shifts.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 1:28 AM ET
Volume
$125End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 1:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent hot spell across southern England, with daytime peaks near 30–33°C and limited nocturnal cooling under high pressure, has positioned 19°C as the market leader for London’s August 15 minimum at 47% implied probability. Ensemble guidance from the Met Office and ECMWF shows a gradual easing of the heatwave, with light northerly flow and partial cloud cover expected to limit radiative cooling and keep overnight lows near 15–16°C; however, any increase in low-level moisture or reduced wind could raise minima toward 18–20°C. Traders appear to weight these variables and recent model runs favoring milder nights more heavily than the strict 15–16°C point forecasts, while lower-probability outcomes below 17°C reflect only a small chance of clearer, calmer conditions. Updated model cycles ahead of the weekend will be the key catalyst for further shifts.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$125End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 1:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent hot spell across southern England, with daytime peaks near 30–33°C and limited nocturnal cooling under high pressure, has positioned 19°C as the market leader for London’s August 15 minimum at 47% implied probability. Ensemble guidance from the Met Office and ECMWF shows a gradual easing of the heatwave, with light northerly flow and partial cloud cover expected to limit radiative cooling and keep overnight lows near 15–16°C; however, any increase in low-level moisture or reduced wind could raise minima toward 18–20°C. Traders appear to weight these variables and recent model runs favoring milder nights more heavily than the strict 15–16°C point forecasts, while lower-probability outcomes below 17°C reflect only a small chance of clearer, calmer conditions. Updated model cycles ahead of the weekend will be the key catalyst for further shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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