Current forecasts from global and regional models indicate a high probability of Beijing's August 13 maximum temperature falling in the 30–32°C range, with market-implied odds reflecting tight clustering around 30°C and 31°C amid moderate uncertainty from an approaching frontal boundary. Recent model runs highlight how subtle variations in cloud cover, timing of scattered showers or thunderstorms, and boundary-layer moisture can shift the daily peak by 1–2°C, while the urban heat island effect in central Beijing adds localized warming potential. Ensemble spread remains notable because convective activity in late summer often produces rapid afternoon changes not fully resolved until 24–48 hours ahead; updated China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF guidance expected over the next day will likely narrow these differences ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Beijing on August 13?
Highest temperature in Beijing on August 13?
31°C 29%
30°C 25%
32°C or higher 20%
29°C 12%
NEW
$30,587 Vol.
NEW
$30,587 Vol.
Aug 13, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
2%
27°C
2%
28°C
6%
29°C
12%
30°C
25%
31°C
29%
32°C or higher
20%
31°C 29%
30°C 25%
32°C or higher 20%
29°C 12%
NEW
$30,587 Vol.
NEW
$30,587 Vol.
Aug 13, 2026
22°C or below
$542 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$855 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$1,871 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$1,618 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$1,487 Vol.
2%
27°C
$1,745 Vol.
2%
28°C
$2,293 Vol.
6%
29°C
$1,835 Vol.
12%
30°C
$1,630 Vol.
25%
31°C
$3,097 Vol.
29%
32°C or higher
$13,615 Vol.
20%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from global and regional models indicate a high probability of Beijing's August 13 maximum temperature falling in the 30–32°C range, with market-implied odds reflecting tight clustering around 30°C and 31°C amid moderate uncertainty from an approaching frontal boundary. Recent model runs highlight how subtle variations in cloud cover, timing of scattered showers or thunderstorms, and boundary-layer moisture can shift the daily peak by 1–2°C, while the urban heat island effect in central Beijing adds localized warming potential. Ensemble spread remains notable because convective activity in late summer often produces rapid afternoon changes not fully resolved until 24–48 hours ahead; updated China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF guidance expected over the next day will likely narrow these differences ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$30,587End Date
Aug 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from global and regional models indicate a high probability of Beijing's August 13 maximum temperature falling in the 30–32°C range, with market-implied odds reflecting tight clustering around 30°C and 31°C amid moderate uncertainty from an approaching frontal boundary. Recent model runs highlight how subtle variations in cloud cover, timing of scattered showers or thunderstorms, and boundary-layer moisture can shift the daily peak by 1–2°C, while the urban heat island effect in central Beijing adds localized warming potential. Ensemble spread remains notable because convective activity in late summer often produces rapid afternoon changes not fully resolved until 24–48 hours ahead; updated China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF guidance expected over the next day will likely narrow these differences ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$30,587End Date
Aug 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from global and regional models indicate a high probability of Beijing's August 13 maximum temperature falling in the 30–32°C range, with market-implied odds reflecting tight clustering around 30°C and 31°C amid moderate uncertainty from an approaching frontal boundary. Recent model runs highlight how subtle variations in cloud cover, timing of scattered showers or thunderstorms, and boundary-layer moisture can shift the daily peak by 1–2°C, while the urban heat island effect in central Beijing adds localized warming potential. Ensemble spread remains notable because convective activity in late summer often produces rapid afternoon changes not fully resolved until 24–48 hours ahead; updated China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF guidance expected over the next day will likely narrow these differences ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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