Persistent heatwave conditions driven by high pressure and warm southeasterly flow from the Met Office and ECMWF models keep London's overnight minimum temperatures elevated for August 14, with consensus forecasts centering near 18–20°C. Clear skies and light winds reduce radiative cooling overnight, while the warm air mass aloft limits deeper drops, shifting trader-implied probabilities toward 21–23°C. Recent updates show daytime peaks of 33–37°C sustaining the warmth into the evening, though a gradual cooling trend may begin by the weekend. These factors explain the tight clustering around 22°C at 52% implied probability, reflecting the narrow range of plausible outcomes given current atmospheric patterns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in London on August 14?
Lowest temperature in London on August 14?
22°C 52%
21°C 28%
23°C 14%
20°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 14, 2026
16°C or below
1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
1%
19°C
2%
20°C
5%
21°C
28%
22°C
52%
23°C
14%
24°C
2%
25°C
1%
26°C or higher
<1%
22°C 52%
21°C 28%
23°C 14%
20°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 14, 2026
16°C or below
$586 Vol.
1%
17°C
$90 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$200 Vol.
1%
19°C
$98 Vol.
2%
20°C
$404 Vol.
5%
21°C
$743 Vol.
28%
22°C
$2,393 Vol.
52%
23°C
$491 Vol.
14%
24°C
$117 Vol.
2%
25°C
$131 Vol.
1%
26°C or higher
$316 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent heatwave conditions driven by high pressure and warm southeasterly flow from the Met Office and ECMWF models keep London's overnight minimum temperatures elevated for August 14, with consensus forecasts centering near 18–20°C. Clear skies and light winds reduce radiative cooling overnight, while the warm air mass aloft limits deeper drops, shifting trader-implied probabilities toward 21–23°C. Recent updates show daytime peaks of 33–37°C sustaining the warmth into the evening, though a gradual cooling trend may begin by the weekend. These factors explain the tight clustering around 22°C at 52% implied probability, reflecting the narrow range of plausible outcomes given current atmospheric patterns.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 1:30 AM ET
Volume
$5,570End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 1:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent heatwave conditions driven by high pressure and warm southeasterly flow from the Met Office and ECMWF models keep London's overnight minimum temperatures elevated for August 14, with consensus forecasts centering near 18–20°C. Clear skies and light winds reduce radiative cooling overnight, while the warm air mass aloft limits deeper drops, shifting trader-implied probabilities toward 21–23°C. Recent updates show daytime peaks of 33–37°C sustaining the warmth into the evening, though a gradual cooling trend may begin by the weekend. These factors explain the tight clustering around 22°C at 52% implied probability, reflecting the narrow range of plausible outcomes given current atmospheric patterns.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5,570End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 1:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent heatwave conditions driven by high pressure and warm southeasterly flow from the Met Office and ECMWF models keep London's overnight minimum temperatures elevated for August 14, with consensus forecasts centering near 18–20°C. Clear skies and light winds reduce radiative cooling overnight, while the warm air mass aloft limits deeper drops, shifting trader-implied probabilities toward 21–23°C. Recent updates show daytime peaks of 33–37°C sustaining the warmth into the evening, though a gradual cooling trend may begin by the weekend. These factors explain the tight clustering around 22°C at 52% implied probability, reflecting the narrow range of plausible outcomes given current atmospheric patterns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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