Forecast models from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration point to a peak temperature near 37°C in Chengdu on August 13, driven by persistent subtropical high pressure over the Sichuan basin that promotes clear skies, strong solar heating, and limited cloud cover. This aligns with the market-implied probabilities favoring 37°C (46%) and 38°C (27%), as historical August data show typical highs of 32–35°C but recent short-range guidance indicates a brief intensification from dry northerly flow. High humidity will elevate apparent temperatures, though any afternoon convective activity could cap the maximum. Updated model runs in the next 24–48 hours will refine steering patterns and confirm whether readings reach or exceed the 38°C threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chengdu on August 13?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 13?
37°C 46%
38°C 27%
36°C 20%
35°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Aug 13, 2026
32°C or below
<1%
33°C
1%
34°C
2%
35°C
4%
36°C
20%
37°C
46%
38°C
27%
39°C
4%
40°C
3%
41°C
1%
42°C or higher
<1%
37°C 46%
38°C 27%
36°C 20%
35°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Aug 13, 2026
32°C or below
$223 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$155 Vol.
1%
34°C
$321 Vol.
2%
35°C
$149 Vol.
4%
36°C
$253 Vol.
20%
37°C
$2,117 Vol.
46%
38°C
$401 Vol.
27%
39°C
$276 Vol.
4%
40°C
$247 Vol.
3%
41°C
$127 Vol.
1%
42°C or higher
$112 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration point to a peak temperature near 37°C in Chengdu on August 13, driven by persistent subtropical high pressure over the Sichuan basin that promotes clear skies, strong solar heating, and limited cloud cover. This aligns with the market-implied probabilities favoring 37°C (46%) and 38°C (27%), as historical August data show typical highs of 32–35°C but recent short-range guidance indicates a brief intensification from dry northerly flow. High humidity will elevate apparent temperatures, though any afternoon convective activity could cap the maximum. Updated model runs in the next 24–48 hours will refine steering patterns and confirm whether readings reach or exceed the 38°C threshold.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$4,381End Date
Aug 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration point to a peak temperature near 37°C in Chengdu on August 13, driven by persistent subtropical high pressure over the Sichuan basin that promotes clear skies, strong solar heating, and limited cloud cover. This aligns with the market-implied probabilities favoring 37°C (46%) and 38°C (27%), as historical August data show typical highs of 32–35°C but recent short-range guidance indicates a brief intensification from dry northerly flow. High humidity will elevate apparent temperatures, though any afternoon convective activity could cap the maximum. Updated model runs in the next 24–48 hours will refine steering patterns and confirm whether readings reach or exceed the 38°C threshold.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,381End Date
Aug 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration point to a peak temperature near 37°C in Chengdu on August 13, driven by persistent subtropical high pressure over the Sichuan basin that promotes clear skies, strong solar heating, and limited cloud cover. This aligns with the market-implied probabilities favoring 37°C (46%) and 38°C (27%), as historical August data show typical highs of 32–35°C but recent short-range guidance indicates a brief intensification from dry northerly flow. High humidity will elevate apparent temperatures, though any afternoon convective activity could cap the maximum. Updated model runs in the next 24–48 hours will refine steering patterns and confirm whether readings reach or exceed the 38°C threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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