Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity across Luzon has kept Metro Manila under cloudy, rainy conditions, limiting daytime heating and anchoring trader expectations around 30–32°C for Manila’s August 15 maximum. PAGASA’s latest extended outlook shows a 25–30°C or 26–33°C range with 90% rain probability, while broader August climatology centers on 30–31°C highs amid high humidity. Recent heavy rainfall episodes further suppress solar insolation, reducing the likelihood of 34°C+ spikes. With resolution only two days away, the closely matched 30°C and 31°C shares reflect model consensus on modest diurnal warming under continued monsoon influence rather than any single outlier forecast.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on August 15?
Highest temperature in Manila on August 15?
31°C 24%
30°C 22%
32°C 19%
29°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
5%
29°C
11%
30°C
22%
31°C
24%
32°C
19%
33°C
11%
34°C
1%
35°C or higher
1%
31°C 24%
30°C 22%
32°C 19%
29°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
25°C or below
$44 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$44 Vol.
1%
27°C
$22 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$8 Vol.
5%
29°C
$0 Vol.
11%
30°C
$0 Vol.
22%
31°C
$0 Vol.
24%
32°C
$0 Vol.
19%
33°C
$0 Vol.
11%
34°C
$22 Vol.
1%
35°C or higher
$32 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity across Luzon has kept Metro Manila under cloudy, rainy conditions, limiting daytime heating and anchoring trader expectations around 30–32°C for Manila’s August 15 maximum. PAGASA’s latest extended outlook shows a 25–30°C or 26–33°C range with 90% rain probability, while broader August climatology centers on 30–31°C highs amid high humidity. Recent heavy rainfall episodes further suppress solar insolation, reducing the likelihood of 34°C+ spikes. With resolution only two days away, the closely matched 30°C and 31°C shares reflect model consensus on modest diurnal warming under continued monsoon influence rather than any single outlier forecast.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$171End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity across Luzon has kept Metro Manila under cloudy, rainy conditions, limiting daytime heating and anchoring trader expectations around 30–32°C for Manila’s August 15 maximum. PAGASA’s latest extended outlook shows a 25–30°C or 26–33°C range with 90% rain probability, while broader August climatology centers on 30–31°C highs amid high humidity. Recent heavy rainfall episodes further suppress solar insolation, reducing the likelihood of 34°C+ spikes. With resolution only two days away, the closely matched 30°C and 31°C shares reflect model consensus on modest diurnal warming under continued monsoon influence rather than any single outlier forecast.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$171End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity across Luzon has kept Metro Manila under cloudy, rainy conditions, limiting daytime heating and anchoring trader expectations around 30–32°C for Manila’s August 15 maximum. PAGASA’s latest extended outlook shows a 25–30°C or 26–33°C range with 90% rain probability, while broader August climatology centers on 30–31°C highs amid high humidity. Recent heavy rainfall episodes further suppress solar insolation, reducing the likelihood of 34°C+ spikes. With resolution only two days away, the closely matched 30°C and 31°C shares reflect model consensus on modest diurnal warming under continued monsoon influence rather than any single outlier forecast.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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