The dominant trader consensus around 28°C for Manila’s maximum temperature on August 13 reflects the ongoing southwest monsoon’s influence, which has sustained widespread cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and enhanced rainfall across Metro Manila. Official PAGASA guidance and model consensus indicate suppressed daytime heating, with current observations near 27°C and forecasts holding highs near or below 29–30°C amid high humidity and limited insolation. This aligns with climatological patterns during active monsoon episodes, when convective activity and reduced solar radiation typically cap peaks below the seasonal 31°C average. A realistic shift toward 29°C or higher would require a rapid monsoon break or clearing skies before peak heating hours, scenarios not currently supported by the latest forecast updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on August 13?
Highest temperature in Manila on August 13?
28°C 96.1%
29°C 3%
30°C <1%
31°C <1%
$30,683 Vol.
$30,683 Vol.
Aug 13, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
96%
29°C
3%
30°C
1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
28°C 96.1%
29°C 3%
30°C <1%
31°C <1%
$30,683 Vol.
$30,683 Vol.
Aug 13, 2026
25°C or below
$267 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$2,116 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$5,343 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$5,478 Vol.
96%
29°C
$4,701 Vol.
3%
30°C
$3,037 Vol.
1%
31°C
$4,013 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$2,046 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$2,252 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$903 Vol.
<1%
35°C or higher
$527 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The dominant trader consensus around 28°C for Manila’s maximum temperature on August 13 reflects the ongoing southwest monsoon’s influence, which has sustained widespread cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and enhanced rainfall across Metro Manila. Official PAGASA guidance and model consensus indicate suppressed daytime heating, with current observations near 27°C and forecasts holding highs near or below 29–30°C amid high humidity and limited insolation. This aligns with climatological patterns during active monsoon episodes, when convective activity and reduced solar radiation typically cap peaks below the seasonal 31°C average. A realistic shift toward 29°C or higher would require a rapid monsoon break or clearing skies before peak heating hours, scenarios not currently supported by the latest forecast updates.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$30,683End Date
Aug 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The dominant trader consensus around 28°C for Manila’s maximum temperature on August 13 reflects the ongoing southwest monsoon’s influence, which has sustained widespread cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and enhanced rainfall across Metro Manila. Official PAGASA guidance and model consensus indicate suppressed daytime heating, with current observations near 27°C and forecasts holding highs near or below 29–30°C amid high humidity and limited insolation. This aligns with climatological patterns during active monsoon episodes, when convective activity and reduced solar radiation typically cap peaks below the seasonal 31°C average. A realistic shift toward 29°C or higher would require a rapid monsoon break or clearing skies before peak heating hours, scenarios not currently supported by the latest forecast updates.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$30,683End Date
Aug 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...The dominant trader consensus around 28°C for Manila’s maximum temperature on August 13 reflects the ongoing southwest monsoon’s influence, which has sustained widespread cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and enhanced rainfall across Metro Manila. Official PAGASA guidance and model consensus indicate suppressed daytime heating, with current observations near 27°C and forecasts holding highs near or below 29–30°C amid high humidity and limited insolation. This aligns with climatological patterns during active monsoon episodes, when convective activity and reduced solar radiation typically cap peaks below the seasonal 31°C average. A realistic shift toward 29°C or higher would require a rapid monsoon break or clearing skies before peak heating hours, scenarios not currently supported by the latest forecast updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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