Forecast consensus from numerical weather prediction models, including those from the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles, centers on a daily maximum of 30–32°C in Beijing for August 16, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those thresholds. Mid-August climatology under the influence of the westward-extended subtropical high and East Asian monsoon supports this range, though variable cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and boundary-layer moisture can suppress peak readings by 1–2°C on any given day. Short-range forecast uncertainty remains elevated due to model spread in timing of convective activity and steering patterns, with newer runs showing slight cooling trends that favor the 30°C and 31°C outcomes over higher thresholds. Traders weigh these atmospheric variables against historical analogs where similar setups produced highs near 31°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Beijing on August 16?
Highest temperature in Beijing on August 16?
30°C 30%
31°C 25%
33°C or higher 25%
32°C 19%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
23°C or below
1%
24°C
1%
25°C
1%
26°C
1%
27°C
8%
28°C
11%
29°C
15%
30°C
28%
31°C
31%
32°C
19%
33°C or higher
19%
30°C 30%
31°C 25%
33°C or higher 25%
32°C 19%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
23°C or below
$5 Vol.
1%
24°C
$5 Vol.
1%
25°C
$5 Vol.
1%
26°C
$30 Vol.
1%
27°C
$0 Vol.
8%
28°C
$0 Vol.
11%
29°C
$0 Vol.
15%
30°C
$5 Vol.
28%
31°C
$11 Vol.
31%
32°C
$13 Vol.
19%
33°C or higher
$104 Vol.
19%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast consensus from numerical weather prediction models, including those from the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles, centers on a daily maximum of 30–32°C in Beijing for August 16, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those thresholds. Mid-August climatology under the influence of the westward-extended subtropical high and East Asian monsoon supports this range, though variable cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and boundary-layer moisture can suppress peak readings by 1–2°C on any given day. Short-range forecast uncertainty remains elevated due to model spread in timing of convective activity and steering patterns, with newer runs showing slight cooling trends that favor the 30°C and 31°C outcomes over higher thresholds. Traders weigh these atmospheric variables against historical analogs where similar setups produced highs near 31°C.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$178End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast consensus from numerical weather prediction models, including those from the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles, centers on a daily maximum of 30–32°C in Beijing for August 16, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those thresholds. Mid-August climatology under the influence of the westward-extended subtropical high and East Asian monsoon supports this range, though variable cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and boundary-layer moisture can suppress peak readings by 1–2°C on any given day. Short-range forecast uncertainty remains elevated due to model spread in timing of convective activity and steering patterns, with newer runs showing slight cooling trends that favor the 30°C and 31°C outcomes over higher thresholds. Traders weigh these atmospheric variables against historical analogs where similar setups produced highs near 31°C.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$178End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast consensus from numerical weather prediction models, including those from the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles, centers on a daily maximum of 30–32°C in Beijing for August 16, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those thresholds. Mid-August climatology under the influence of the westward-extended subtropical high and East Asian monsoon supports this range, though variable cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and boundary-layer moisture can suppress peak readings by 1–2°C on any given day. Short-range forecast uncertainty remains elevated due to model spread in timing of convective activity and steering patterns, with newer runs showing slight cooling trends that favor the 30°C and 31°C outcomes over higher thresholds. Traders weigh these atmospheric variables against historical analogs where similar setups produced highs near 31°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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