Recent Météo-France and ECMWF model runs establish 38–39°C as the consensus peak for Paris on August 14, driven by persistent high pressure, weak winds, and clear skies that maximize daytime solar heating. Ensemble spreads remain tight around the upper 30s Celsius, with only limited upside to 40°C if boundary-layer mixing stays suppressed. Official guidance issued in the past 24 hours has held steady, anchoring trader sentiment toward the 39°C outcome at 65.5% implied probability and 38°C at 20.5%. Historical August extremes near 39°C and the current heat-wave pattern across western Europe further support this narrow range ahead of tomorrow’s official observation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Paris on August 14?
Highest temperature in Paris on August 14?
39°C 65%
38°C 25%
40°C 9%
37°C 4%
NEW
$15,900 Vol.
NEW
$15,900 Vol.
Aug 14, 2026
35°C or below
1%
36°C
1%
37°C
4%
38°C
25%
39°C
65%
40°C
9%
41°C
2%
42°C
1%
43°C
<1%
44°C
<1%
45°C or higher
<1%
39°C 65%
38°C 25%
40°C 9%
37°C 4%
NEW
$15,900 Vol.
NEW
$15,900 Vol.
Aug 14, 2026
35°C or below
$1,353 Vol.
1%
36°C
$1,117 Vol.
1%
37°C
$1,965 Vol.
4%
38°C
$2,468 Vol.
25%
39°C
$4,185 Vol.
65%
40°C
$1,254 Vol.
9%
41°C
$1,127 Vol.
2%
42°C
$919 Vol.
1%
43°C
$508 Vol.
<1%
44°C
$556 Vol.
<1%
45°C or higher
$447 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Météo-France and ECMWF model runs establish 38–39°C as the consensus peak for Paris on August 14, driven by persistent high pressure, weak winds, and clear skies that maximize daytime solar heating. Ensemble spreads remain tight around the upper 30s Celsius, with only limited upside to 40°C if boundary-layer mixing stays suppressed. Official guidance issued in the past 24 hours has held steady, anchoring trader sentiment toward the 39°C outcome at 65.5% implied probability and 38°C at 20.5%. Historical August extremes near 39°C and the current heat-wave pattern across western Europe further support this narrow range ahead of tomorrow’s official observation.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 1:02 AM ET
Volume
$15,900End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 1:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Météo-France and ECMWF model runs establish 38–39°C as the consensus peak for Paris on August 14, driven by persistent high pressure, weak winds, and clear skies that maximize daytime solar heating. Ensemble spreads remain tight around the upper 30s Celsius, with only limited upside to 40°C if boundary-layer mixing stays suppressed. Official guidance issued in the past 24 hours has held steady, anchoring trader sentiment toward the 39°C outcome at 65.5% implied probability and 38°C at 20.5%. Historical August extremes near 39°C and the current heat-wave pattern across western Europe further support this narrow range ahead of tomorrow’s official observation.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$15,900End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 1:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Météo-France and ECMWF model runs establish 38–39°C as the consensus peak for Paris on August 14, driven by persistent high pressure, weak winds, and clear skies that maximize daytime solar heating. Ensemble spreads remain tight around the upper 30s Celsius, with only limited upside to 40°C if boundary-layer mixing stays suppressed. Official guidance issued in the past 24 hours has held steady, anchoring trader sentiment toward the 39°C outcome at 65.5% implied probability and 38°C at 20.5%. Historical August extremes near 39°C and the current heat-wave pattern across western Europe further support this narrow range ahead of tomorrow’s official observation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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