Traders assign nearly identical 38.5% implied probabilities to Chicago's highest temperature today falling in either the 78–79°F or 80–81°F range, underscoring forecast uncertainty around the afternoon peak. National Weather Service guidance points to a moderating lake breeze from Lake Michigan potentially suppressing temperatures below some model projections, while variable cloud cover and wind shifts create small differences in expected maxima. Official observations at the primary reporting station will resolve the market, with climatological August highs near 82°F providing historical context for the narrow spread between these leading outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chicago on August 13?
Highest temperature in Chicago on August 13?
78-79°F 39%
80-81°F 38%
82-83°F 11.2%
76-77°F 9%
NEW
$42,209 Vol.
NEW
$42,209 Vol.
Aug 13, 2026
67°F or below
<1%
68-69°F
<1%
70-71°F
<1%
72-73°F
2%
74-75°F
5%
76-77°F
9%
78-79°F
39%
80-81°F
38%
82-83°F
11%
84-85°F
1%
86°F or higher
<1%
78-79°F 39%
80-81°F 38%
82-83°F 11.2%
76-77°F 9%
NEW
$42,209 Vol.
NEW
$42,209 Vol.
Aug 13, 2026
67°F or below
$4,253 Vol.
<1%
68-69°F
$3,790 Vol.
<1%
70-71°F
$4,245 Vol.
<1%
72-73°F
$1,865 Vol.
2%
74-75°F
$4,022 Vol.
5%
76-77°F
$2,113 Vol.
9%
78-79°F
$1,591 Vol.
39%
80-81°F
$12,429 Vol.
38%
82-83°F
$2,961 Vol.
11%
84-85°F
$1,542 Vol.
1%
86°F or higher
$3,398 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign nearly identical 38.5% implied probabilities to Chicago's highest temperature today falling in either the 78–79°F or 80–81°F range, underscoring forecast uncertainty around the afternoon peak. National Weather Service guidance points to a moderating lake breeze from Lake Michigan potentially suppressing temperatures below some model projections, while variable cloud cover and wind shifts create small differences in expected maxima. Official observations at the primary reporting station will resolve the market, with climatological August highs near 82°F providing historical context for the narrow spread between these leading outcomes.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Volume
$42,209End Date
Aug 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign nearly identical 38.5% implied probabilities to Chicago's highest temperature today falling in either the 78–79°F or 80–81°F range, underscoring forecast uncertainty around the afternoon peak. National Weather Service guidance points to a moderating lake breeze from Lake Michigan potentially suppressing temperatures below some model projections, while variable cloud cover and wind shifts create small differences in expected maxima. Official observations at the primary reporting station will resolve the market, with climatological August highs near 82°F providing historical context for the narrow spread between these leading outcomes.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$42,209End Date
Aug 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign nearly identical 38.5% implied probabilities to Chicago's highest temperature today falling in either the 78–79°F or 80–81°F range, underscoring forecast uncertainty around the afternoon peak. National Weather Service guidance points to a moderating lake breeze from Lake Michigan potentially suppressing temperatures below some model projections, while variable cloud cover and wind shifts create small differences in expected maxima. Official observations at the primary reporting station will resolve the market, with climatological August highs near 82°F providing historical context for the narrow spread between these leading outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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