Recent short-range forecasts from agencies such as the Turkish State Meteorological Service and ECMWF indicate Istanbul’s August 16 maximum will likely center near the mid-August climatological average of 27–29 °C. Stable high pressure combined with moderate northerly flow and sea-surface temperatures in the Marmara and Black Seas are expected to sustain sea-breeze moderation that limits daytime heating and keeps the distribution tightly clustered around 26–28 °C. Model consensus shows little spread, with only minor variations tied to possible increases in afternoon cloud cover or slight shifts in wind direction. Updated runs closer to the date will refine the exact peak, particularly regarding any transient ridging that could allow brief warming above 30 °C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on August 16?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on August 16?
26°C 54%
25°C 27%
27°C 27%
28°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
22°C or below
6%
23°C
7%
24°C
5%
25°C
27%
26°C
47%
27°C
27%
28°C
10%
29°C
4%
30°C
6%
31°C
6%
32°C or higher
4%
26°C 54%
25°C 27%
27°C 27%
28°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
22°C or below
$10 Vol.
6%
23°C
$10 Vol.
7%
24°C
$0 Vol.
5%
25°C
$0 Vol.
27%
26°C
$12 Vol.
47%
27°C
$6 Vol.
27%
28°C
$0 Vol.
10%
29°C
$3 Vol.
4%
30°C
$10 Vol.
6%
31°C
$10 Vol.
6%
32°C or higher
$15 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecasts from agencies such as the Turkish State Meteorological Service and ECMWF indicate Istanbul’s August 16 maximum will likely center near the mid-August climatological average of 27–29 °C. Stable high pressure combined with moderate northerly flow and sea-surface temperatures in the Marmara and Black Seas are expected to sustain sea-breeze moderation that limits daytime heating and keeps the distribution tightly clustered around 26–28 °C. Model consensus shows little spread, with only minor variations tied to possible increases in afternoon cloud cover or slight shifts in wind direction. Updated runs closer to the date will refine the exact peak, particularly regarding any transient ridging that could allow brief warming above 30 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$76End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecasts from agencies such as the Turkish State Meteorological Service and ECMWF indicate Istanbul’s August 16 maximum will likely center near the mid-August climatological average of 27–29 °C. Stable high pressure combined with moderate northerly flow and sea-surface temperatures in the Marmara and Black Seas are expected to sustain sea-breeze moderation that limits daytime heating and keeps the distribution tightly clustered around 26–28 °C. Model consensus shows little spread, with only minor variations tied to possible increases in afternoon cloud cover or slight shifts in wind direction. Updated runs closer to the date will refine the exact peak, particularly regarding any transient ridging that could allow brief warming above 30 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$76End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent short-range forecasts from agencies such as the Turkish State Meteorological Service and ECMWF indicate Istanbul’s August 16 maximum will likely center near the mid-August climatological average of 27–29 °C. Stable high pressure combined with moderate northerly flow and sea-surface temperatures in the Marmara and Black Seas are expected to sustain sea-breeze moderation that limits daytime heating and keeps the distribution tightly clustered around 26–28 °C. Model consensus shows little spread, with only minor variations tied to possible increases in afternoon cloud cover or slight shifts in wind direction. Updated runs closer to the date will refine the exact peak, particularly regarding any transient ridging that could allow brief warming above 30 °C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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