Official forecasts position 26°C as the leading outcome for Istanbul's August 14 high, with models from the Met Office and extended guidance showing maximums near 26–28°C under sunny conditions and moderate northerly flow. Typical August climatology averages 27–28°C, but recent model runs indicate slightly cooler steering patterns and limited moisture that cap intensification potential. The 62.5% market-implied probability for 26°C aggregates trader evaluation of forecast convergence ahead of final observational data, while lower odds for 27°C or above reflect uncertainty in diurnal peaks and urban heat island effects. Updated model consensus and any last-minute wind or cloud adjustments from regional agencies remain key variables before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on August 14?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on August 14?
26°C 66%
25°C 21%
27°C 11%
24°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Aug 14, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
4%
25°C
21%
26°C
66%
27°C
11%
28°C
3%
29°C
1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
26°C 66%
25°C 21%
27°C 11%
24°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Aug 14, 2026
23°C or below
$155 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$334 Vol.
4%
25°C
$357 Vol.
21%
26°C
$1,238 Vol.
66%
27°C
$696 Vol.
11%
28°C
$360 Vol.
3%
29°C
$314 Vol.
1%
30°C
$245 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$385 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$467 Vol.
<1%
33°C or higher
$141 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts position 26°C as the leading outcome for Istanbul's August 14 high, with models from the Met Office and extended guidance showing maximums near 26–28°C under sunny conditions and moderate northerly flow. Typical August climatology averages 27–28°C, but recent model runs indicate slightly cooler steering patterns and limited moisture that cap intensification potential. The 62.5% market-implied probability for 26°C aggregates trader evaluation of forecast convergence ahead of final observational data, while lower odds for 27°C or above reflect uncertainty in diurnal peaks and urban heat island effects. Updated model consensus and any last-minute wind or cloud adjustments from regional agencies remain key variables before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Volume
$4,691End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts position 26°C as the leading outcome for Istanbul's August 14 high, with models from the Met Office and extended guidance showing maximums near 26–28°C under sunny conditions and moderate northerly flow. Typical August climatology averages 27–28°C, but recent model runs indicate slightly cooler steering patterns and limited moisture that cap intensification potential. The 62.5% market-implied probability for 26°C aggregates trader evaluation of forecast convergence ahead of final observational data, while lower odds for 27°C or above reflect uncertainty in diurnal peaks and urban heat island effects. Updated model consensus and any last-minute wind or cloud adjustments from regional agencies remain key variables before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,691End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official forecasts position 26°C as the leading outcome for Istanbul's August 14 high, with models from the Met Office and extended guidance showing maximums near 26–28°C under sunny conditions and moderate northerly flow. Typical August climatology averages 27–28°C, but recent model runs indicate slightly cooler steering patterns and limited moisture that cap intensification potential. The 62.5% market-implied probability for 26°C aggregates trader evaluation of forecast convergence ahead of final observational data, while lower odds for 27°C or above reflect uncertainty in diurnal peaks and urban heat island effects. Updated model consensus and any last-minute wind or cloud adjustments from regional agencies remain key variables before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions