Recent Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and international model consensus point to a Tokyo maximum near 27–29 °C on August 14, keeping those bins tightly bunched in trader sentiment. Afternoon thunderstorms and increased cloud cover are expected to reduce surface insolation and cap peak heating, while moderate southerly flow advects humid air from the Pacific that elevates the heat index but also favors convective development. Urban heat-island effects in central Tokyo add a few tenths of a degree relative to suburban stations, yet variable precipitation timing creates the narrow spread between 27 °C and 29 °C outcomes. Updated model runs tomorrow morning will refine the exact thermodynamic profile ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 14?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 14?
28°C 36%
27°C 33%
29°C 20%
26°C 7%
NEW
$16,172 Vol.
NEW
$16,172 Vol.
Aug 14, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
2%
26°C
7%
27°C
33%
28°C
36%
29°C
20%
30°C
6%
31°C
2%
32°C or higher
1%
28°C 36%
27°C 33%
29°C 20%
26°C 7%
NEW
$16,172 Vol.
NEW
$16,172 Vol.
Aug 14, 2026
22°C or below
$399 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$387 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$480 Vol.
1%
25°C
$1,058 Vol.
2%
26°C
$1,438 Vol.
7%
27°C
$1,407 Vol.
33%
28°C
$4,412 Vol.
36%
29°C
$3,589 Vol.
20%
30°C
$1,474 Vol.
6%
31°C
$914 Vol.
2%
32°C or higher
$616 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and international model consensus point to a Tokyo maximum near 27–29 °C on August 14, keeping those bins tightly bunched in trader sentiment. Afternoon thunderstorms and increased cloud cover are expected to reduce surface insolation and cap peak heating, while moderate southerly flow advects humid air from the Pacific that elevates the heat index but also favors convective development. Urban heat-island effects in central Tokyo add a few tenths of a degree relative to suburban stations, yet variable precipitation timing creates the narrow spread between 27 °C and 29 °C outcomes. Updated model runs tomorrow morning will refine the exact thermodynamic profile ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$16,172End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and international model consensus point to a Tokyo maximum near 27–29 °C on August 14, keeping those bins tightly bunched in trader sentiment. Afternoon thunderstorms and increased cloud cover are expected to reduce surface insolation and cap peak heating, while moderate southerly flow advects humid air from the Pacific that elevates the heat index but also favors convective development. Urban heat-island effects in central Tokyo add a few tenths of a degree relative to suburban stations, yet variable precipitation timing creates the narrow spread between 27 °C and 29 °C outcomes. Updated model runs tomorrow morning will refine the exact thermodynamic profile ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$16,172End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and international model consensus point to a Tokyo maximum near 27–29 °C on August 14, keeping those bins tightly bunched in trader sentiment. Afternoon thunderstorms and increased cloud cover are expected to reduce surface insolation and cap peak heating, while moderate southerly flow advects humid air from the Pacific that elevates the heat index but also favors convective development. Urban heat-island effects in central Tokyo add a few tenths of a degree relative to suburban stations, yet variable precipitation timing creates the narrow spread between 27 °C and 29 °C outcomes. Updated model runs tomorrow morning will refine the exact thermodynamic profile ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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